Will PancakeSwap V3 launch trigger crash in CAKE like V2?

PancakeSwap, one of the largest decentralized exchanges in crypto is gearing up for the launch of its Version 3 on the BNB chain. PancakeSwap V3 will launch on BNB on April 3, and promises to offering users more competitive trading fees than its peers. 

The launch of PancakeSwap’s Version 2 turned out to be a sell the news event for the exchange's native token CAKE, in April 2021. With the shift in macroeconomic outlook and the brewing alt season in 2023, it is likely that V3 launch turns into a non-event for CAKE holders. 

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PancakeSwap Version 3 prepares for April 3 launch on BNB chain

PancakeSwap, one of the leading multichain Decentralized Exchanges (DEXes) in crypto, is set to launch its Version 3 on April 3. The exchange currently relies on smart contracts to enable swaps without intermediaries. 

Chef Mochi, the Head Chef at PancakeSwap recently revealed in an interview that the Binance Smart Chain leads the way with its fast and low-cost transactions. V3 is therefore being rolled out on the BNB chain. 

The upgrade brings key features like competitive trading fees, higher incentives, new yield-farming tools and liquidity provisioning for DEX users. Currently, the DEX holds over $2.8 billion in tokens, based on data from DeFiLlama. 

The platform’s native utility and governance token CAKE has yielded nearly 5% losses for holders since March 17, in the weeks leading up to the launch of V3 on BNB chain. 

CAKE price nosedived on V2 launch in April 2021

The launch of Version 2 turned out to be a sell-the-news event in April 2021. There was a massive retracement in CAKE price in the weeks following the launch of the DEXes new version. 

As seen in the price chart below, CAKE price climbed in the weeks leading up to launch on April 23 and nosedived, retracing its gains from the month before. 

CAKE/USDT 1W price chart

It remains to be seen whether a similar outcome can be expected from the V3 launch. CAKE price climbed to $4.015 before its decline to $3.656 on Thursday. If the trend from V2 roll-out repeats itself, CAKE could climb to key resistance at $4.015, represented by the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, before a correction on V3 launch in April. 

CAKE/USDT 1D price chart 

On its path to $4.015, CAKE faces resistance at the monthly low of $3.793, and the weekly high of $3.890. In the event of its decline, CAKE could find support at the $3.423 level, this has acted as support throughout 2023. 

If the series of events from V2 launch repeat itself, then the downside target for CAKE price is $3.120. 

Can the shifting macro outlook and brewing alt season change the bearish thesis?

Following the collapse of large US banks and Bitcoin’s “safe haven” narrative making a comeback, there has been a significant shift in the macroeconomic outlook on crypto. Bitcoin’s dominance receded by a few percentage points from 44.88% to 44.5%, making way for the alt season narrative and fueling rallies among cryptocurrencies with relatively low market capitalization. 

This macro environment is different from April 2021, when PancakeSwap V2 was rolled out, making it likely that the Version 3 launch turns out to be a non-event, instead of a sell-off for CAKE.