|

Why LUNA price could drop another 20%

  • LUNA price is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern that hints at a 36% crash.
  • A bounce off the weekly support level at $62 seems to have paused the nosedive to $47.28.
  • A six-hour candlestick close above $75.53 will invalidate the bearish thesis for Terra.

LUNA price shows ambiguous signals as it approaches the weekly support level. A breakdown of this barrier could trigger another massive downswing, but there is a chance of a minor upswing as well.

LUNA price at the edge

LUNA price action since February 22 has formed head-and-shoulders. This technical formation contains three distinctive swing highs; the central one is the tallest one and is known as the “head”. The two peaks on either side with comparable heights are known as “shoulders”. 

The valleys of the head and shoulders can be connected to form a horizontal support level at $75.53, also known as the “neckline”.

This technical formation forecasts a 36% downswing, which is obtained by measuring the distance between the head’s highest point and neckline. Adding this distance to the breakout point at $62 reveals the target at $47.28.

So far, LUNA price has crashed 18% from the neckline and is currently bouncing off the weekly support level at $62. This barrier is significant in where Terra head next. If the buyers keep struggling as they have over the past three days, a breakdown seems apparent. 

In such a situation, LUNA price could crash to $47.28 and even extend lower to retest the $43.56 weekly support floor.

LUNA/USDT 6-hour chart

LUNA/USDT 6-hour chart

While things are looking grim for the altcoin, a six-hour candlestick close above $75.53 will invalidate the head-and-shoulders bearish thesis for LUNA price. In such a case, Terra could attempt to set a higher high above the $87.84 resistance barrier to trigger a further ascent.

Author

Akash Girimath

Akash Girimath is a Mechanical Engineer interested in the chaos of the financial markets. Trying to make sense of this convoluted yet fascinating space, he switched his engineering job to become a crypto reporter and analyst.

More from Akash Girimath
Share:

Editor's Picks

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP extend sell-off amid negative funding rates 

Bitcoin is down 15% in February and looks poised to extend its losses toward the yearly low of $60,000. Ethereum and Ripple are following in Bitcoin's footsteps, weighed down by a weak derivatives market. 

Hyperliquid tests key support as sell-side pressure intensifies

Hyerliquid (HYPE) drops to its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $28.85 at the time of writing on Wednesday, extending a decline of roughly 10% so far this week. 

Stellar Price Forecast: XLM risks revisiting $0.136 as sell-off continues

Stellar is trading below $0.160 at the time of writing on Wednesday, extending its correction for the fifth consecutive day. The bearish price action is further supported by rising short bets and declining Open Interest in the derivatives market. 

Bitcoin Price Annual Forecast: BTC holds long-term bullish structure heading into 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) is wrapping up 2025 as one of its most eventful years, defined by unprecedented institutional participation, major regulatory developments, and extreme price volatility.

Bitcoin: The worst may be behind us

Bitcoin (BTC) price recovers slightly, trading at $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, after reaching a low of $60,000 during the early Asian trading session. The Crypto King remained under pressure so far this week, posting three consecutive weeks of losses exceeding 30%.