What the US election could mean for Bitcoin

With less than a month until the US presidential elections, the race remains tight, with everything still to play for. At the time of writing, prediction markets and polls are giving Trump slightly higher odds of victory over Harris. But Harris has also pledged some support to crypto. This, combined with strong ETF inflows, has boosted Bitcoin to a two-week high, turning BTC positive in October. 

Pro-crypto Trump 

Trump has performed a spectacular U-turn on the sector this year, having previously called it a scam. Instead, Trump has adopted a pro-crypto stance across the Presidential campaign, vowing to make the US the crypto capital of the planet, pledging to set up Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and promising to fire the Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler in an attempt to win over younger blockchain-friendly voters. 

While Bitcoin could experience a relief rally after a Trump win, the reality is that Trump may struggle to push through crypto-friendly regulations if a Republican majority in Congress doesn’t also accompany his victory. 

Kamala Harris shows some support for crypto 

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is slowing showing her cards. Last month, the vice president and Democratic presidential candidate highlighted crypto as one of the industries of the future. On Monday this week, Harris pledged to support a regulatory framework for crypto, boosting Bitcoin’s price, even though her comments were short on detail. However, with just four weeks to go until polling day, her conversation may have come a little too late. 

Still, this being one of her few mentions of crypto in her recent campaigning efforts has sparked some optimism that Harris is not looking to extend the Biden administration's crackdown on the industry. 

Is the US election a win-win scenario? 

While Trump is a clear pro-crypto candidate, Harris is also showing some signs of support. Still, some market players may position the contest as a win-win situation regardless of who the next president is. Neither Trump nor Harris intends to reduce the US debt burden, keeping Bitcoin’s appeal strong compared to fiat currencies. 

October turns positive 

Other tailwinds are also aligning for Bitcoin, such as its position within the cycle, expectations of a lower interest rate environment, and rising institutional involvement.  On Monday, spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $556 million in inflows, marking the highest level since early June. The 12 US spot BTC ETFs now have total assets of almost $62 billion. 

October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with average gains of 20% this month over the past ten years. After a rocky start, Bitcoin has risen 3.5% in October so far. 

Where next for Bitcoin? 

Bitcoin trades within a falling channel dating back to March. The price recovered from the 59.5k September low, rising back above the 200 SMA, and is testing resistance at 66.5k, the September high. 

A break above this level creates a higher high, changing the structure of the chart and bringing 67.5k, the falling trendline resistance, into focus. Above here, buyers will look to 70k and 73,750, the all-time. high. 

Should sellers defend the 66k level, a move lower could see the price test the 200 SMA at 63.3k, ahead of the key 60k psychological level and 57k, the near term rising trendline support. 

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