Uniswap price to rally 20% as UNI takes another jab at massive resistance barrier

• Uniswap price could see a 20% run-up to $22.44 if the buyers band together.
• On-chain metrics show massive resistance ranging from $18.73 to $21.89 and declining user interest.
• A breakdown of the $13.88 support floor will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis.

Uniswap price has bounced off a crucial barrier, suggesting an uptrend is likely. This run-up, however, faces a confluence of resistance barriers, revealing that the upside for UNI is capped.

Uniswap price faces a tough decision

Uniswap price has retested the $13.88 support floor more than five times over the seven months and has not breached it once. The latest encounter with this barrier resulted in UNI rallying 43% in just a week.

Since this uptick, UNI has retraced 9% to where it currently stands - $18.37. As it trades, Uniswap price faces the 50 daily Simple Moving Average (SMA) and must overcome this hurdle to have any chance at an upswing. Clearing this barrier will allow UNI to rally 20% to $22.44, where the 50 and 100 daily SMA are present. 

Due to the confluence of SMAs, Uniswap price is unlikely to see a move beyond $22.44. However, under special circumstances, a significant spike in buying pressure could breach this resistance barrier, allowing Uniswap price to retest the $27.49 resistance barrier. 

UNI/USDT 1-day chart

The blockade at $22.44 is seen clearly in IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model. Roughly 35,000 addresses that purchased nearly 220.3 million UNI at an average price of $20.52 are underwater. Therefore, any short-term spikes in buying pressure that pushes Uniswap price to retest this barrier will likely be met by selling pressure from these holders trying to break even.

Hence, from an optimist’s standpoint, investors can expect a 20% upswing to $22.44 from the current position, and anything beyond it is ephemeral and unlikely to hold up.

UNI GIOM

Further supporting this lackluster outlook for UNI is the daily active addresses, which are hovering below the 30-day average at 1,391. Uniswap has been seeing a reduced DAA count since July 2021, suggesting that investors are not interested in this DeFi bluechip coin at the current levels.

UNI DAA

While things are looking up for Uniswap price from a short-term perspective, increased selling pressure could push UNI to retest the support level at $13.88. If this uptick in bearish momentum pushes Uniswap price to produce a daily candlestick close below the said barrier, it will create a lower low, invalidating the bullish thesis for UNI.

In this case, the altcoin could venture lower and retest the $9.86 support floor after crashing 29%.

---