Jonathan Morgan
Independent Analyst
- Bitcoin price finds some support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
- Ethereum price flirts with a drop below the Cloud and bull flag channel.
- XRP price reversal date could be right around the corner.
Bitcoin price suffered a strong sell-off on Monday, but oscillator values indicate some near-term support is probable. Ethereum price action is generating panic in hodlers and excitement in bears. XRP price has upcoming Kumo Twist, which could point to a temporary or long-term reversal in the current trend.
Bitcoin price to retest $52,000
Bitcoin price action remains in a solid technical bear market within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system. Since triggering an Ideal Bearish Ichimoku Breakout on December 4, Bitcoin has steadily dropped lower but may have found some temporary support.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI )has transitioned into bear market levels, with the oversold levels now at 30 and 20. However, the RSI has bounced off the 30 level and held it as support. At the same time, the Composite Index has crossed above both of its moving averages while the Optex Bands oscillator has moved out of extreme oversold conditions.
BTC/USD Daily Ichimoku Chart
The expected level that Bitcoin would retrace to is likely between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the daily Kijun-Sen at $52,000. However, traders will want to be careful of any daily close below $45,500 as this could trigger a swift move lower towards $40,000.
Ethereum price about to wreck one side of the market
Ethereum price is at a pressure point that could trigger panic or joy for both sides of the market. Presently, Ethereum is trading just a hair below a triple confluence zone of support: the bottom of the bull flag, the 100% Fibonacci expansion, and the bottom of the Cloud (Senkou Span B). Ethereum broke down below these areas yesterday, but buyers returned Ethereum just below those support levels.
ETH/USD Daily Ichimoku Chart
Sellers have again tried to push Ethereum beyond the breaking point, but bulls have thus far been staunch in their defense of this price zone. If bulls can defend the location, the next step is to test the next major resistance zone at $4,400. On the other hand, if bears succeed in pushing Ethereum lower, a fast move to the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion at 161.8% is in the cards. Either way, one side of this market will feel some significant pain.
XRP price signals a turning point in the current direction may happen soon
XRP price has a Kumo Twist coming up on December 17. Kumo Twists are periods where the Cloud shifts from red to green or from green to red. They are periods when Future Senkou Span A crosses Future Senkou Span B.
When an instrument is trending strongly while approaching the date of the Kumo Twist, there is a high probability that a major/minor swing high/low will be found around that date. XRP price is the definition of a strongly trending instrument, with losses of over 42% from the most recent significant swing high on November 10.
XRP/USDT Daily Ichimoku Chart
If XRP price does find a bottom in the present value area, then the likely retracement is a test of the bottom of the Cloud. That would return XRP to the $1.12 value area, nearly a 40% gain from the current $0.80 range.
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