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BTC/USD moving up with no other Crypto company
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ETH/USD still stuck around its moving averages
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XRP/USD continues to be very weak, under sellers’ control
We are starting the week with a very similar situation to the one we had last week. Bitcoin keeps its bullish trajectory while the other two Top 3 Cryptocurrencies are still showing weakness, at the expense of a bullish breakout movement that allows them to break the current ranges.
The market is still awaiting the SEC to approve the first ETF that allows to trade on the Crypto board. It seems inevitable that the license will finally be conceded, especially considering the strong increase in the volume of the Bitcoin futures market in Chicago. Most that spike comes from the institutional investors, which shows how much the financial professionals have embraced the Crypto sector.
BTC/USD 240 Min
BTC/USD is trading in the European morning at $7.700 and is approaching the $7.781 level that would mark the change of technical scenario and, in my humble opinion, the mid-term forecast. A close above this level would put the short-term target at $8,500. On the other hand, we should expect Bitcoin to take a break by consolidating those levels while waiting for Ethereum, Ripple and other crypto board members.
Above the current price, it is necessary to, at first, consolidate a close above $7,740. Because of its proximity, a consolidation above $7,781 would be effortless and send a technical signal to the market that would contribute to more capital inflows to BTC/USD.
The change of scenario would lead us to consider the upside of the channel that rules the macro movement of BTC/USD. The absolute target for Bitcoin it is located at $9,500 but, before that, BTC/USD will have to overcome all the resistance levels it has encountered in the past few months. In ascending order: $7,868, $7,992, $8,180, $8,385, $8,795 and $9,146. I do not foresee a continued rise, and it is possible that we could see significant pullbacks between $8,500 and $8,000.
Below the current price, a close below the $7,600 price level would bring BTC/USD back into the range of the last few days and would undoubtedly lead to a test of the $7,200 range lows that the EMA50 is now passing through, bringing strength to the technical support. Between the two levels, BTC/USD would find an average support level at $7,400.
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MACD at 240 min crosses back up after regulating last week's strong movement. The typical pattern of this second crossing is of divergent tendency accompanied by strong terminal moves.
DMI at 240 min shows how, during the last sessions, the buyers have been decreasing in intensity, but without the sellers taking advantage of it to increase their levels. A change of trend at the D+ level would reinforce the bullish leg, while continued declines would support a false move and a return to prices below $7,600.
ETH/USD 240 Min
I had long wondered when would we get a significant decoupling between the main characters of the Crypto board. This could be the moment, as Ethereum, trapped by its main moving averages, is now incapable of reacting in the slightest way to Bitcoin's bullish pull.
Above the current price, Ethereum has everything to do with a first clear goal: to breach last week's highs. ETH/USD must first break above $480 and then target $520, where it would find support once the necessary breakout is consolidated. From here, the next target it is at $620, which is the level from which ETH/USD could attempt to attack the bearish trend line that limits it from above, and that would pass through the $640 level.
Below the current price, there is little room to maneuver, as Ethereum only has the support of the lower trend line, which would be over $440. Below this level, bulls would the alarm signal, as aggressive sales would be favored and we would need to re-draw a bearish scenario in the medium term.
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MACD at 240 min shows a worrying profile below the middle line of the indicator. Without a strong capital inflow that separates the signal lines and takes it above this average level, short-term development does not seem likely to be very positive.
DMI at 240 min shows the sellers in control, having increased during the last few days. It is a minimum sales level for ETH/USD, but buyers are even weaker. No trend force with an ADX below 15.
XRP/USD 240 Min
If Ethereum shows no strength, Ripple is straight out defeated. It has not been able to place itself along the moving averages and has been rejected downward every time it has gotten close to the $0.45 range, where the SMA200, SMA100, and EMA50 are concentrated.
Above the current price, Ripple is expected to breach the moving average concentration range of $0.46 to $0.47. Exceeding these long-term averages would be very positive, and would help Ethereum to make an attempt to break above $0.50 first, and $0.52 later. From here, you would enjoy some space and could move fast up to $0.55. The target of the move is the downtrend line that would go through the $0.58 level.
Below the current price, weak support at $0.44 with a slightly bullish trend line coming from late June. Losing this line would be very harmful to the future of ETH/USD. A little lower, at $0.43, the last support opportunity before entering bearish territory in the medium term, with a target projection of $0.25.
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MACD at 240 min shows a profile similar to that of Ethereum, although even at lower levels, confirming the general weakness of Ripple. A fresh inflow of money is needed if bulls want to have any upside options.
DMI at 240 min shows the sellers in control and with some distance from buyers, who have not reached the minimum levels of activity needed to turn the current scenario around. The ADX remains slightly above level 20, so the price retains some inertia.
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