- Bitcoin UTXO age bands’ crossover has forecasted three rallies in the past.
- The recent crossover on September 17 suggests another rally in the works for BTC.
- A breakdown of the $25,000 support level will invalidate this bullish thesis.
Bitcoin price currently trades at $26,242 with dampened volatility. But things could change quickly, as indicated by these on-chain metrics that track the behavior of BTC holders.
Also read: Members of US FSC urge SEC Chair Gensler to immediately approve spot Bitcoin ETFs
Bitcoin price needs to hold this key support
Bitcoin price has been malleable to the short-term holder movements. A large spike in profits for short-term holders is almost always met by a correction in BTC. Likewise, a surge in short-term holders purchasing BTC could trigger an uptrend in the pioneer crypto.
UTXO bands are key to monitoring the sentiment of BTC holders for a specific period. In this case, CryptoQuant’s 1-day to 1-week and 1-week to 1-month UTXO holder bands are used. The range mentioned represents addresses that have not moved their holdings for the specified period.
As seen in the chart below, the 1-day to 1-week UTXO band crossing above the 1-week to 1-month UTXO band has triggered a rally in Bitcoin price. The same has been true since the start of 2023.
The first time this bullish crossover occurred was on January 10, which was just before Bitcoin price rallied from $17,300 to nearly $24,000. Similar crossovers were observed on March 17 and June 21.
Currently, Bitcoin price sits above the critical support level at $25,000 and has also produced a UTXO band bullish crossover, which adds credence to the potentially bullish breakout. If BTC were to trigger a rally here, the target would be $30,000 psychological level.
-638313901782281179.png)
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
While this optimistic outlook for Bitcoin price is logical and backed by nearly nine months of historical data, investors need to be cautious. A decisive breakdown of the $25,000 support level on the daily time frame will invalidate this bullish thesis for BTC.
In such a case, Bitcoin price could crash 13% to next key support level at $21,637.
Also read: Bitcoin Ordinals creator proposes “Runes”, a replacement for BRC-20 standard
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC nosedives below $95,000 as spot ETFs record highest daily outflow since launch
Bitcoin price continues to edge down, trading below $95,000 on Friday after declining more than 9% this week. Bitcoin US spot ETFs recorded the highest single-day outflow on Thursday since their launch in January.
Bitcoin crashes to $96,000, altcoins bleed: Top trades for sidelined buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $100,000 milestone and touched the $96,000 level briefly on Friday, a sharp decline that has also hit hard prices of other altcoins and particularly meme coins.
Solana Price Forecast: SOL’s technical outlook and on-chain metrics hint at a double-digit correction
Solana (SOL) price trades in red below $194 on Friday after declining more than 13% this week. The recent downturn has led to $38 million in total liquidations, with over $33 million coming from long positions.
SEC approves Hashdex and Franklin Templeton's combined Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto index ETFs
The SEC approved Hashdex's proposal for a crypto index ETF. The ETF currently features Bitcoin and Ethereum, with possible additions in the future. The agency also approved Franklin Templeton's amendment to its Cboe BZX for a crypto index ETF.
Bitcoin: 2025 outlook brightens on expectations of US pro-crypto policy
Bitcoin (BTC) price has surged more than 140% in 2024, reaching the $100K milestone in early December. The rally was driven by the launch of Bitcoin Spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in January and the reduced supply following the fourth halving event in April.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.