Spot Solana ETF might 9x the price of SOL

Spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States could potentially drive up the price of SOL by a factor of nine, suggests crypto market maker GSR Markets.

In a June 27 report, the firm described Solana as part of “crypto’s big three” and looked into whether Solana’s (SOL $145) will be the next spot cryptocurrency ETF to receive U.S. regulatory approval.

Coincidentally, GSR’s report was released on the same day VanEck filed to issue a spot Solana ETF, surprising many.

GSR — which holds a long position on SOL — reached the “8.9x” estimate on the assumption that the spot Solana ETFs would take in 14% of the flows that the spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen since launching in January, based on their relative market cap size.

GSR’s “blue sky scenario” would take Solana’s current price of $149 to over $1,320, while Solana’s market cap would increase to $614 billion (at current supply).

Meanwhile, GSR’s “bear” and “baseline” scenarios would see the spot Solana ETFs take in 2% and 5% of what Bitcoin took, triggering 1.4x and 3.4x price rises for SOL, respectively.

The price of SOL under base, bear and bull scenarios. Source: GSR Markets

The firm said these estimates could be even larger if the spot Solana ETFs include income from staking rewards, though staking wasn’t allowed in the approved spot Ether (ETH $3,440) ETFs.

“Solana is poised for a spot ETF if and when additional spot digital asset ETFs are allowed in the US, and the impact on price may just be the largest yet.”

Despite GSR’s optimism, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and others believe a change of U.S. president and chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission would be necessary for a spot Solana ETF to be seriously considered.

The SEC and its Chair, Gary Gensler, labeled SOL as a security in its lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, arguably making the pathway toward approval much more challenging than the now-approved spot Bitcoin (BTC $61,453) and Ether ETFs.

VanEck’s application comes a week after cryptocurrency asset manager 3iQ filed for a spot Solana ETF in Canada, which marked a North American first.

Solana’s recent price performance and major developments. Source: GSR

The Solana ecosystem and network have also received praise from $1.5 trillion asset manager Franklin Templeton. However, the firm hasn’t confirmed it will for a spot Solana ETF in the future.

Over $1 billion worth of Solana exchange-traded products are already offered worldwide.

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