Token unlock pushes XRP lower as holders come to grips with SEC appeal

• Ripple has unlocked 1 billion XRP tokens on October 1, amidst major unlocks across the crypto market. 
• Solana and Arbitrum have a combined unlock of over $100 million worth of tokens in October. 
• XRP holds steady above support at $0.5200, struggles to make a comeback to the psychologically important $0.60 level. 

Ripple (XRP) climbs 2% on Friday. XRP is influenced by several market movers: the US Securities & Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to appeal the final ruling in the Ripple lawsuit, Ripple’s $1 billion token unlock on October 1 and other token unlocks this month, including Solana and Arbitrum. 

XRP trades at $0.5328 on Friday, October 4. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: XRP could fail to erase recent losses in October

• Ripple executives are currently undecided on whether the payment remittance firm will file a counter appeal. The firm has 14 days from October 3, the day when the US SEC filed an appeal on the final ruling in the Ripple lawsuit. 
• The SEC has appealed the ruling where Ripple was fined $125 million for the sale of XRP tokens to institutions. Judge Analisa Torres upheld her July 2023 ruling that provides legal clarity to XRP as a non-security in transactions on crypto exchanges. 
• In October, Solana (SOL) and Arbitrum (ARB) are set to unlock $74 million worth of SOL and $51 million in ARB tokens. 
• Georgy Slavin-Rudakov, CMO at B2BINPAY, told FXStreet:

“October’s crypto market is set to experience significant volatility, driven by several large token unlocks. ADA’s recent 18.53 million token release has already introduced selling pressure, with mixed performance in price action. Other major unlocks, like Solana (SOL) and Arbitrum (ARB), may be better equipped to absorb the new supply due to their strong ecosystems. Meanwhile, Ripple’s ongoing legal battle with the SEC continues to shape the market’s outlook on XRP. This case will be key in influencing XRP’s future trajectory. However, I remain optimistic that the outcome will ultimately be favorable for the token, with the potential to reach $10–20 by the end of 2025, and possibly climbing to $100–300 by 2030.”

• Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC remains a focal point for XRP holders in October 2024. 
• The firm’s scheduled unlock of 1 billion XRP influenced Ripple holder sentiment this week. 
• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index on CryptoEQ.io shows that the sentiment among XRP traders is negative on Friday. 

Technical analysis: XRP could correct 10%

Ripple has been in a downward trend for over a year. The altcoin has been range-bound between the upper boundary of $0.6602 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from its top of $0.9380 in July 2023 to July 2024 low of $0.3823) and the lower boundary of $0.4780 from the Fair Value Gap (between $0.4780 and $0.5136). 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows red histogram bars under the neutral line, signaling underlying negative momentum in the XRP price trend. 

XRP could dip 9.9% and sweep liquidity at $0.4780 if it extends its decline. 

XRP/USDT daily chart

A daily candlestick close above the psychologically important $0.6000 level could invalidate the bearish thesis. XRP would then attempt a recovery rally toward $0.6602. 

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