The 1 billion XRP token unlock raises questions on chances of recovery in Ripple’s price

Ripple has unlocked 1 billion XRP tokens on October 1, amidst major unlocks across the crypto market.
Solana and Arbitrum have a combined unlock of over $100 million worth of tokens in October.
XRP holds steady above support at $0.5200, struggles to make a comeback to the psychologically important $0.60 level.

Ripple (XRP) climbs 2% on Friday. XRP is influenced by several market movers: the US Securities & Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to appeal the final ruling in the Ripple lawsuit, Ripple’s $1 billion token unlock on October 1 and other token unlocks this month, including Solana and Arbitrum.

XRP trades at $0.5328 on Friday, October 4.

Daily Digest Market Movers: XRP could fail to erase recent losses in October

Ripple executives are currently undecided on whether the payment remittance firm will file a counter appeal. The firm has 14 days from October 3, the day when the US SEC filed an appeal on the final ruling in the Ripple lawsuit.
The SEC has appealed the ruling where Ripple was fined $125 million for the sale of XRP tokens to institutions. Judge Analisa Torres upheld her July 2023 ruling that provides legal clarity to XRP as a non-security in transactions on crypto exchanges.
In October, Solana (SOL) and Arbitrum (ARB) are set to unlock $74 million worth of SOL and $51 million in ARB tokens.
Georgy Slavin-Rudakov, CMO at B2BINPAY, told FXStreet:

“October’s crypto market is set to experience significant volatility, driven by several large token unlocks. ADA’s recent 18.53 million token release has already introduced selling pressure, with mixed performance in price action. Other major unlocks, like Solana (SOL) and Arbitrum (ARB), may be better equipped to absorb the new supply due to their strong ecosystems. Meanwhile, Ripple’s ongoing legal battle with the SEC continues to shape the market’s outlook on XRP. This case will be key in influencing XRP’s future trajectory. However, I remain optimistic that the outcome will ultimately be favorable for the token, with the potential to reach $10–20 by the end of 2025, and possibly climbing to $100–300 by 2030.”

Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC remains a focal point for XRP holders in October 2024.
The firm’s scheduled unlock of 1 billion XRP influenced Ripple holder sentiment this week.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index on CryptoEQ.io shows that the sentiment among XRP traders is negative on Friday.

Technical analysis: XRP could correct 10%

Ripple has been in a downward trend for over a year. The altcoin has been range-bound between the upper boundary of $0.6602 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from its top of $0.9380 in July 2023 to July 2024 low of $0.3823) and the lower boundary of $0.4780 from the Fair Value Gap (between $0.4780 and $0.5136).

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows red histogram bars under the neutral line, signaling underlying negative momentum in the XRP price trend.

XRP could dip 9.9% and sweep liquidity at $0.4780 if it extends its decline.

XRP/USDT daily chart

A daily candlestick close above the psychologically important $0.6000 level could invalidate the bearish thesis. XRP would then attempt a recovery rally toward $0.6602.

Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs

What is circulating supply?

The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides on the total number of tokens that can be minted or issued. Only a certain number of these assets can be minted by mining, staking or other mechanisms. This is defined by the algorithm of the underlying blockchain technology. On the other hand, circulating supply can also be decreased via actions such as burning tokens, or mistakenly sending assets to addresses of other incompatible blockchains.

What is market capitalization?

Market capitalization is the result of multiplying the circulating supply of a certain asset by the asset’s current market value.

What is trading volume?

Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens for a specific asset that has been transacted or exchanged between buyers and sellers within set trading hours, for example, 24 hours. It is used to gauge market sentiment, this metric combines all volumes on centralized exchanges and decentralized exchanges. Increasing trading volume often denotes the demand for a certain asset as more people are buying and selling the cryptocurrency.

What is the funding rate?

Funding rates are a concept designed to encourage traders to take positions and ensure perpetual contract prices match spot markets. It defines a mechanism by exchanges to ensure that future prices and index prices periodic payments regularly converge. When the funding rate is positive, the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the mark price. This means traders who are bullish and have opened long positions pay traders who are in short positions. On the other hand, a negative funding rate means perpetual prices are below the mark price, and hence traders with short positions pay traders who have opened long positions.

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