Is this the end? GBTC outflows slow for second day straight

Outflows from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have slowed for the second day in a row — prompting a glimmer of hope that a multibillion-dollar Bitcoin (BTC $40,072) dumping spree could soon end.

BitMEX Research data shows GBTC outflows were $429 million on Jan. 24 — the smallest daily outflow since the launch of Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan. 11 and a 33% slowdown compared to the start of the week on Jan. 22.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flow - After 9 days

here is the provisional chart. Only GBTC, Bitwise, Ark and Franklin in for day 9 so far

Day 9:

GBTC -$429.3m
Ark +$24.9m
Bitwise +$20m
Franklin +$1.2m

Waiting on others. Looks like another net outflow day. https://t.co/fzj2LI5CtH pic.twitter.com/E7s3YjyatD
— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) January 25, 2024

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in a Jan. 25 X post that GBTC outflows are “seemingly trending down,” though noted “it’s still a pretty large number.” In earlier posts Balchunas concluded there were still “too many unknowns” to determine when the “mass exodus” of GBTC would stop.

GBTC has bled 106,092 BTC, worth approximately $4.4 billion, over nine trading days.

$GBTC outflows today were ‘only’ $425m, lowest bleed since day one and seemingly trending down. That said it’s still a pretty large number. Source: Bloomberg terminal
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 25, 2024

A slowdown in daily outflows doesn’t necessarily mean the GBTC “bleeding” is over or slowing down. Balchunas previously estimated the GBTC would lose around 25% of its shares outstanding before an end to outflows.

GBTC outflow data could be misinterpreted, says Arkham

Blockchain tracking firm Arkham Intelligence has meanwhile warned of potential misinterpretation of the GBTC transaction data shown on its platform at first glance.

How to interpret the daily Grayscale BTC flows on Arkham:

Every day around US market open, Grayscale sends large amounts of BTC to Coinbase Prime deposits. These likely represent GBTC redemptions, but there are a couple important things to keep in mind to accurately interpret… pic.twitter.com/UoErxY5sIt
— Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) January 24, 2024

In a Jan. 24 X post, Arkham explained the outflow data for GBTC shown on its platform is split between Coinbase Prime and new GBTC custody addresses — meaning not all of the BTC being moved from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust is necessarily being redeemed.

“Due to the input-output structure of its blockchain, Bitcoin transaction outputs are often split amongst multiple addresses.”

“GBTC custody wallets frequently send to multiple addresses [...] This means that some of the BTC sent in a transaction may go to a different address than the main recipient shown in the transaction panel,” it explained.

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