Alexander Kuptsikevich
FxPro Financial Services Limited
Market picture
The cryptocurrency market has been rising since the start of the day on Thursday, recovering strongly from Wednesday’s late afternoon sell-off in the wake of global financial markets. At its lowest point, the market capitalisation was down to $2.23 trillion, and at the time of writing, it had risen to $2.32 trillion (+0.1% in 24 hours). The market’s intraday movements will reveal whether this marks the bears’ last stand or if the current rebound is just a bull trap.
Bitcoin’s intraday dynamics are bullish. Wednesday’s end-of-day lows saw a flash drop below $65.5K, completing a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 10-21 October rally. A quick exit to the recent highs at $69.5K would make the main scenario an extension of the upside with the potential to strengthen to $76K before further consolidation.
News background
According to CryptoQuant, 94% of the Bitcoin supply is ‘long’, with the median purchase price hovering around $55K. Such high levels of unrealised profits have historically served as a precursor to significant BTC corrections.
Retail demand for Bitcoin returned to pre-ATH levels in March. This contrasts with the first quarter when large players largely drove demand.
Bernstein reiterated its prediction of a $200K price for the first cryptocurrency by the end of next year, calling it ‘conservative’. BTC’s investment appeal is increasing against the backdrop of rising US government debt and the threat of inflation.
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Editors’ Picks
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Slow but positive start
Bitcoin edges slightly lower, trading around $96,500 on Friday after an over 2.5% recovery this week, with historical data showing modest average January returns of 3.35%. On-chain metrics suggest the bull market remains intact, indicating a cooling-off phase rather than a cycle peak.
Stellar bulls aim for double-digit rally ahead
Stellar extends its gains, trading above $0.45 on Friday after rallying more than 32% this week. On-chain data indicates further rally as XLM’s Open Interest and Total Value Locked rise. Additionally, the technical outlook suggests a rally continuation projection of further 40% gains.
BTC, ETH and XRP eyes for a rally
Bitcoin’s price finds support around its key level, while Ethereum’s price is approaching its key resistance level; a firm close above it would signal a bullish trend. Ripple price trades within a symmetrical triangle on Friday, a breakout from which could signal a rally ahead.
Could XRP surge to new highs in January 2025? First two days of trading suggest an upside bias
Ripple's XRP is up 7% on Thursday, extending its rally that began during the New Year's Day celebration. If long-term holders (LTH) continue their recent accumulation, XRP could overcome the $2.9 resistance level and aim for a new all-time high.
Bitcoin: 2025 outlook brightens on expectations of US pro-crypto policy
Bitcoin price has surged more than 140% in 2024, reaching the $100K milestone in early December. The rally was driven by the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January and the reduced supply following the fourth halving event in April.
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