Like many others, the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETHUSD), bottomed on August 5 at $2121, rallied overlappingly until the end of the month, and sits today at around $2480. It's not the most awe-inspiring rally, to be honest. Since our preferred analysis method is the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), this “sloppy” price action remains open to interpretation. But we are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel. Namely, in our previous update, see here, we found that “The decline from the March high into last Monday’s low still counts best as three waves: W-X-Y. See Figure 1 below.”

Figure 1. The daily resolution candlestick chart of ETH with several technical indicators

Thus far, the August 5 low has held, and as long as it does, we can allow for the (grey) wave-i, ii setup, as shown, to develop further. In this case, grey W-i was a leading diagonal, and grey W-ii was an irregular expanded flat. Note that at today’s low, almost 76.40% of the potential W-i rally was retraced, a typical level for a 2nd wave. Moreover, the technical indicators (TIs, such as the RSI14, MF14, and MACD) are starting to creep up, which is a positive development. However, ETHUSD is still well below its declining Ichimoku Cloud, 20-day simple moving average (d SMA), and below the declining 50d and 200d SMA. Thus, the chart trend is still 100% Bearish, and the Bulls have a lot of work left to do. First, a break back above the late-August high, labeled as orange W-b, at $2813, is required to help tell us the grey W-iii is underway. That level is critical support/resistance.

Meanwhile, in our previous update, we also found that “Unfortunately, we still cannot delineate between the "low in," as shown in Figure 1, and the "one more 5th wave lower" option.” This is, regrettably, still the case. Namely, the Bulls' third (orange) warning level is holding, but if it fails, we will have to look for the low 2000s again. See Figure 2 below.

Figure 2. The daily resolution candlestick chart of ETH with several technical indicators

In that case, the August rally was a 4th wave bounce, and a final 5th wave to ideally $2050+/-50 should be expected for an even more protracted W-X-Y correction than we already have at the August low. Conversely, we have placed the warning levels for the Bears on the chart that will tell us above which prices such a lower low become less and less likely. The 1st  (blue) warning will be at $2555, the 2nd at $2812, etc.

Thus, although the price action is still less than ideal, we now have simple price-based parameters to help us tell if we see lower prices first, or if the August 5th low, and even today’s low, will stand.


The analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable, equal past performance, or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. The inclusion of information about positions and other information is not intended to be any type of recommendation or solicitation.

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Bitcoin to extend its consolidation between the $75,000 to $88,000 range

Bitcoin to extend its consolidation between the $75,000 to $88,000 range

Bitcoin price faces a slight rejection around the $85,000 resistance level on Wednesday after recovering 3.16% the previous day. A K33 report highlights that Cryptocurrencies and Equities have largely de-risked going into Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” on Wednesday. 

More Bitcoin News
Maker, Gala and Polygon lead $100k whale transactions, can altcoins defy looming macro uncertainty?

Maker, Gala and Polygon lead $100k whale transactions, can altcoins defy looming macro uncertainty?

Maker (MKR), GALA, and Polygon (POL) are among the crypto projects that have seen a spike in whale transactions of at least $100,000 in the past week, as revealed by Santiment on-chain data. 

More Cryptocurrencies News
Cardano and Binance Coin Price Forecast: Altcoins ADA and BNB show weakness in momentum indicators

Cardano and Binance Coin Price Forecast: Altcoins ADA and BNB show weakness in momentum indicators

Cardano (ADA) and Binance Coin (BNB) prices edge slightly down, trading around $0.66 and $598, respectively, at the time of writing on Wednesday after a mild recovery so far this week.

More Cryptocurrencies News
Public firms turn balance sheets into Bitcoin vaults: Gamestop raises $1.5 billion; Metaplanet adds 160 BTC

Public firms turn balance sheets into Bitcoin vaults: Gamestop raises $1.5 billion; Metaplanet adds 160 BTC

Public companies are increasingly converting their balance sheets into Bitcoin reserves. Gamestop (GME) has raised $1.5 billion in capital, with potential plans to allocate part of the funds toward expanding its Bitcoin treasury.

More Cryptocurrencies News
Bitcoin: BTC remains calm before a storm

Bitcoin: BTC remains calm before a storm

Bitcoin's price has been consolidating between $85,000 and $88,000 this week. A K33 report explains how the markets are relatively calm and shaping up for volatility as traders absorb the tariff announcements. PlanB’s S2F model shows that Bitcoin looks extremely undervalued compared to Gold and the housing market.

Read full analysis
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD

SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.

Read More

BTC

ETH

XRP