Like many others, the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETHUSD), bottomed on August 5 at $2121, rallied overlappingly until the end of the month, and sits today at around $2480. It's not the most awe-inspiring rally, to be honest. Since our preferred analysis method is the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), this “sloppy” price action remains open to interpretation. But we are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel. Namely, in our previous update, see here, we found that “The decline from the March high into last Monday’s low still counts best as three waves: W-X-Y. See Figure 1 below.”
Figure 1. The daily resolution candlestick chart of ETH with several technical indicators
Thus far, the August 5 low has held, and as long as it does, we can allow for the (grey) wave-i, ii setup, as shown, to develop further. In this case, grey W-i was a leading diagonal, and grey W-ii was an irregular expanded flat. Note that at today’s low, almost 76.40% of the potential W-i rally was retraced, a typical level for a 2nd wave. Moreover, the technical indicators (TIs, such as the RSI14, MF14, and MACD) are starting to creep up, which is a positive development. However, ETHUSD is still well below its declining Ichimoku Cloud, 20-day simple moving average (d SMA), and below the declining 50d and 200d SMA. Thus, the chart trend is still 100% Bearish, and the Bulls have a lot of work left to do. First, a break back above the late-August high, labeled as orange W-b, at $2813, is required to help tell us the grey W-iii is underway. That level is critical support/resistance.
Meanwhile, in our previous update, we also found that “Unfortunately, we still cannot delineate between the "low in," as shown in Figure 1, and the "one more 5th wave lower" option.” This is, regrettably, still the case. Namely, the Bulls' third (orange) warning level is holding, but if it fails, we will have to look for the low 2000s again. See Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. The daily resolution candlestick chart of ETH with several technical indicators
In that case, the August rally was a 4th wave bounce, and a final 5th wave to ideally $2050+/-50 should be expected for an even more protracted W-X-Y correction than we already have at the August low. Conversely, we have placed the warning levels for the Bears on the chart that will tell us above which prices such a lower low become less and less likely. The 1st (blue) warning will be at $2555, the 2nd at $2812, etc.
Thus, although the price action is still less than ideal, we now have simple price-based parameters to help us tell if we see lower prices first, or if the August 5th low, and even today’s low, will stand.
The analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable, equal past performance, or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. The inclusion of information about positions and other information is not intended to be any type of recommendation or solicitation.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks

Who is Satoshi? Crypto lawyer sues DHS to reveal Satoshi Nakamoto's identity
Crypto attorney James Murphy, popularly known as "MetalLawMan", files a lawsuit against DHS to reveal Satoshi Nakamoto's identity. The lawsuit is based on Special Agent Rana Saoud's 2019 claim that the DHS had uncovered the creator of Bitcoin.

Binance to delist BADGER, BAL, 12 more tokens on April 16
Binance will delist 14 tokens on April 16 following a successful vote and standard delisting processes. TROY, SNT, and UFT top Binance’s first batch of the vote to delist results. Binance token delisting will impact futures, margin, loan and simple earn services.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: MicroStrategy’s SEC form 8-K filing hints at possible Bitcoin sales to meet financial obligations
Bitcoin price stabilizes around $80,000 on Tuesday after reaching a new year-to-date low of $74,508 the previous day. MicroStrategy’s SEC Form 8-K filing reports a loss of $5.91 billion, hinting at possible BTC sales to meet financial obligations.

Top 3 gainers Fartcoin, Hyperliquid and Telcoin: Asian session sparks tariff relief rally in meme coins and DeFi
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a tariff relief rally, with altcoins like Fartcoin, Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Telcoin (TEL) bouncing back with double-digit gains. Fartcoin has jumped 28% in the past 24 hours, reaching $0.5801.

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Tariff ‘Liberation Day’ sparks liquidation in crypto market
Bitcoin (BTC) price remains under selling pressure and trades near $84,000 when writing on Friday after a rejection from a key resistance level earlier this week.

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.