Ethereum price: Why ETH traders are better off with short positions

• Ethereum price shows a descending triangle setup, hinting at a 10% drop.
• Long positions are likely going to be trapped should ETH breach the $1,191 support level.
• A four-hour candlestick close above $1,340 will invalidate the bearish thesis for the smart contract token. 

Ethereum price is in a consolidative phase as it hovers below a crucial resistance level. While a quick move to the upside to collect liquidity is likely, traders should not confuse this for a bullish directional bias.

Ethereum price to undo its recovery gains

Ethereum price crashed 33% between November 8 and 10 as the FTX exchange collapsed due to the alleged misappropriation of funds. This bearish move created a local bottom at $1,073, allowing buyers to step in and purchase ETH at a discount, resulting in a 25% recovery rally.

After failing to overcome $1,340, the midpoint of the $1,073 to $1,607 range, Ethereum price retraced and kick-started its consolidation. This range tightening created two lower highs and three equal lows. When these swing points are connected using trend lines, it reveals a descending triangle setup.

This Ethereum price formation forecasts a 9% downswing to $1,073, obtained by measuring the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point at $1,191. Therefore, the trigger for traders is a flip of the aforementioned support level. 

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index shows that the momentum is predominantly bearish as it hovers below the 50-level. Another rejection at this hurdle will further strengthen the outlook described above.

In some cases, however, Ethereum price might breach the triangle to the upside to collect the buy-stop liquidity resting above the two distinctive lower lows. This move is termed a fakeout and could trap impatient traders on the wrong side.

ETHUSDT 4-hour chart

While things are looking up for Ethereum price, investors need to be cautious of a prolonged fakeout. If sellers do not take control and knock ETH lower, it could result in an upward momentum build-up, allowing buyers to seize control. 

In such a case, if Ethereum price produces a four-hour candlestick close above $1,340, it will invalidate the bearish thesis for the smart contract token. Such a development will open further upside for ETH to balance the Fair Value Gap inefficiency and tag the $1,383 level.

 

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