Ethereum derivatives data highlights the lack of short-term strength as ETH price lags Bitcoin’s recovery to the $40,000 range.
While speaking at the Virtual Fintech Forum in Hong Kong on May 27, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin commented on obstacles related to the Ethereum 2.0 rollout. Buterin said that there had been several internal team conflicts in the past five years and as a result, he confirmed that Ethereum 2.0 launch is unlikely to occur before late 2022.
In a May 22 report from Goldman Sachs, analysts said that Ether has a "high chance of overtaking Bitcoin as a dominant store of value." Furthermore, the report noted the growth of the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector and the nonfungible token (NFT) ecosystems being built on Ethereum. Coincidentally, on the very next day, Ether's price bottomed at $1,750.
On June 14, CoinShares released its weekly fund flows report and Ether investment products had the largest outflows, totaling $12.7 million.
However, the upcoming $1.5 billion options expiry on June 25 could be a turning point for Ether, according to Cointelegraph. This figure is 30% larger than the March 26 expiry, which took place as Ether's price plunged 17% in five days and bottomed near $1,550.
Despite flirting with $2,600 after a 12% rally over the past week, top Ether traders seem unable to change their neutral-to-bearish positioning according to derivatives data.
The 3-month futures premium is neutral-to-bearish
Normally, Tte 3-month futures will usually trade at a premium to regular spot exchanges. In addition to the exchange liquidity risk, the seller is postponing settlement and usually charges more.
The 6% to 17% annualized return on stablecoin lending indicates bullishness whenever the 3-month premium trades above that range. On the other hand, when futures are trading below the stablecoin lending rate, it is a signal of short-term bearish sentiment.
Huobi ETH Sept. futures premium vs. spot market. Source: TradingView
As shown above, the 8% premium — 26% annualized — vanished on May 13, indicating extreme optimism. Since then, it has been ranging near 2.8%, which is equivalent to 10% annualized. Thus, top traders are neutral-to-bearish according to this indicator as it nears the lower level of the expected range.
The options skew shows moderate signs of fear
The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when the protective put options premium is trading higher. Whenever this metric surpasses 10%, it is considered a "fear" indicator.
The opposite holds when market makers are bullish and this causes the 25% delta skew indicator to enter the negative range
Deribit Ethereum options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch
From May 20 to June 8, the indicator stood near 10%, indicating a higher protective put premium, which is usually a ‘fear’ indicator. However, over the last week, it has slightly improved to 7%, within the "neutral" range, but still close to bearish sentiment.
There is no evidence of bullish growth in top traders' confidence as Ether tests the $2,600 resistance. So until those indicators flip to neutral-to-bullish, traders should act with extreme care before concluding that a bull run is in place.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Is Altcoin Season here as Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high?
Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high of $98,384 on Thursday, with altcoins following the suit. Reports highlight that the recent surge in altcoins was fueled by the victory of crypto-friendly candidate Donal Trump in the US presidential election.
Shanghai court confirms legal recognition of crypto ownership
A Shanghai court has confirmed that owning digital assets, including Bitcoin, is legal under Chinese law. Judge Sun Jie of the Shanghai Songjiang People’s Court shared this opinion through the WeChat account of the Shanghai High People’s Court.
BTC hits an all-time high above $97,850, inches away from the $100K mark
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $97,852 on Thursday, and the technical outlook suggests a possible continuation of the rally to $100,000. BTC futures have surged past the $100,000 price mark on Deribit, and Lookonchain data shows whales are accumulating.
Shiba Inu holders withdraw 1.67 trillion SHIB tokens from exchange
Shiba Inu trades slightly higher, around $0.000024, on Thursday after declining more than 5% the previous week. SHIB’s on-chain metrics project a bullish outlook as holders accumulate recent dips, and dormant wallets are on the move, all pointing to a recovery in the cards.
Bitcoin: New high of $100K or correction to $78K?
Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $93,265 in the first half of the week, followed by a slight decline in the latter half. Reports highlight that Bitcoin’s current level is still not overvalued and could target levels above $100,000 in the coming weeks.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.