Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH bears must fight for $193.00 to the last drop of blood

• ETH/USD has recovered from the intraday low, but the upside momentum is weak.
• The critical support is created by the trend line on approach $193.00.

ETH/USD touched the intraday low at $195.17 and recovered to $199.50 by press time. The second-largest digital asset attempted a recovery above $219 on Sunday, May 3, and has been trading with bearish bias ever since.  ETH/USD has lost over 6% in recent 24 hours and 4.5% since the beginning of Monday. 

Currently, 35% of Ethereum addresses are in the money. About 1.63 million addresses holding 3.36 million ETH have their breakeven point in the range from $202 to $216. Once this area is cleared, the upside momentum may gain traction with the next focus on the recent high at $227.36.

ETH/USD: Technical picture  

On the intraday charts, ETH/USD needs to regain ground above $206.00 area to improve the short-term technical picture. This resistance is reinforced by 1-hour SMA200 ($205.70). Once it is out of the way, the upside is likely to gain traction with the next focus on $210.00 with 1-hour SMA50 and SMA100 located around this psychological barrier. A sustainable move above this area is needed to get the recovery back on track and open the way to $220.00, followed by the above-said high at $227.36.

On the downside, a sell-off to $195.300-$195.00 will increase the short-term bearish pressure. The lower line of the 1-hour Bollinger Band at $195.30 may slow down the bears, however, if this support area is cleared, ETH/USD will go down to the upside-looking trend line from March 13 low. This is a pivotal level that separates the downside correction from the resumed bearish trend. This line is closely followed by psychological $190.00 and daily SMA100 that may serve as an additional backstop and trigger the recovery.

ETH/USD 1-hour chart