The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH $1,646), shows a growing conflict among traders about the market direction for March. This uncertainty has resulted in ETH price consolidating inside a narrow sideways range between $1,600 and $1,700 since Feb. 15.
25% ETH price correction on the table in March
The uncertainty stems from Ethereum’s long-awaited Shanghai upgrade going live sometime in March.
Several analysts predict the upgrade, which will enable stakers to withdraw their vested tokens from Ethereum’s proof-of-stake (PoS) smart contract, will trigger a short-term sell-off event.
The Ethereum PoS smart contract has attracted more than 17.4 million ETH (~$28.35 billion at the current exchange rate) since its introduction in December 2020, per Etherscan.
In addition, Ether is finding it difficult to break above the technical resistance range. The Ethereum token has attempted to flip the $1,650–1,700 area to support multiple times since August 2022, as shown by the red bar in the chart below.
ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Interestingly, each failed breakout attempt has resulted in a strong pullback toward a common support line — a multimonth ascending trendline (black).
Therefore, if history is any indication, ETH’s next correction could potentially land its price near $1,250, down 25% from the current levels. Conversely, a break above $1,650–1,700 positions ETH for the $1,925–2,000 range (purple) as its next upside target.
Future ETH selloffs will be limited — data trackers
From an on-chain perspective, an extended Ether price crash appears less likely.
Notably, there’s been a massive drop in ETH supplies on exchanges since September 2022 — falling from around 30% to 11%. Theoretically, this reduces the immediate sell pressure as capital moves to the sidelines.
“The trend in crypto, particularly since September, has been quickly moving self-custody,” Santiment noted, adding:
This trend picked up after the FTX collapse. Regardless, with both BTC and ETH around 5-year low exchange supplies, future sell-offs will be limited.
In addition, data analytics firm CryptoQuant has reached a similar conclusion about potential Ether selloffs in the future, primarily in the wake of the Shanghai hard fork.
CryptoQuant notes that 60% of the staked ETH supply — about 10.3 million ETH — is currently at a loss. Meanwhile, Lido DAO, the largest Ethereum staking provider, holds 30% of all staked ETH at an average loss of $1,000, or 24%.
“Typically, selling pressure arises when participants have extreme profits, which is not the case for staked ETH currently,“ CryptoQuant wrote:
Additionally, the most profitable staked ETH was staked less than a year ago and has not seen significant profit-taking events in the past.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC nosedives below $95,000 as spot ETFs record highest daily outflow since launch
Bitcoin price continues to edge down, trading below $95,000 on Friday after declining more than 9% this week. Bitcoin US spot ETFs recorded the highest single-day outflow on Thursday since their launch in January.
Bitcoin crashes to $96,000, altcoins bleed: Top trades for sidelined buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $100,000 milestone and touched the $96,000 level briefly on Friday, a sharp decline that has also hit hard prices of other altcoins and particularly meme coins.
Solana Price Forecast: SOL’s technical outlook and on-chain metrics hint at a double-digit correction
Solana (SOL) price trades in red below $194 on Friday after declining more than 13% this week. The recent downturn has led to $38 million in total liquidations, with over $33 million coming from long positions.
SEC approves Hashdex and Franklin Templeton's combined Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto index ETFs
The SEC approved Hashdex's proposal for a crypto index ETF. The ETF currently features Bitcoin and Ethereum, with possible additions in the future. The agency also approved Franklin Templeton's amendment to its Cboe BZX for a crypto index ETF.
Bitcoin: 2025 outlook brightens on expectations of US pro-crypto policy
Bitcoin (BTC) price has surged more than 140% in 2024, reaching the $100K milestone in early December. The rally was driven by the launch of Bitcoin Spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in January and the reduced supply following the fourth halving event in April.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.