Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin in the longer term despite BTC halving

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor influences the crypto community in Bitcoin halving hype.
Bitcoin halving hits peak popularity in Google Trends data.
Ethereum has the potential to produce higher returns than Bitcoin regardless of halving, says Greg Magadini.

Bitcoin (BTC) halving is headlining almost every discussion in the crypto market on Wednesday. While many predict the largest digital asset to enter another record-breaking bull run, an industry insider sees Ethereum (ETH) as the main deal regardless of the halving narrative.

Bitcoin halving narrative heats up

The Bitcoin halving is less than nine days away, and crypto community members are prepping for a potential bull, considering a similar price increase from previous halvings. Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, and many other crypto community members have taken to X to share their bullish sentiments as the halving approaches.

The Halving is Coming. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/LslCQPqUxx
— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) April 10, 2024

As the hype continues to build up, Google Trends data from the last thirty days shows searches for the keyword "Bitcoin halving" reached peak popularity on Monday and is now at 94 points. The Netherlands leads as the most interested country in Bitcoin halving, followed by Switzerland and Austria.

Also read: Crypto market begins recovery as Runes gain attention ahead of Bitcoin halving

Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin

However, despite Bitcoin's rising popularity as the fourth halving approaches, some believe Ethereum has a better prospect of yielding returns.

Greg Magadini, director of derivatives trading at Amberdata, said in a recent article on CoinDesk that the halving narrative is already priced into short-term Bitcoin options. He analyzed that while Ethereum may be lagging recently, it may be poised for tremendous growth in the future. He painted a picture of his thesis comparing Bitcoin derivatives to Ethereum.

One of the key points he noted is that traders are sure of the halving and aren't likely to be surprised by it, unlike a potential spot for Ethereum ETF approval plus adoption that's unknown. He shared how, on April 26, "Bitcoin options on the call wing are priced at a substantial premium to the Ethereum call wing, while the Ethereum put wing is priced at a premium to the BTC put wing."

As a result, the halving is boosting confidence among BTC traders, while the low odds of an ETH approval plus the SEC's investigation are causing pessimism in ETH. The increasing CME open interest rate of Bitcoin, which exceeds that of Ethereum's stagnant open interest rate, reveals that the US market has yet to start building significant positions in ETH as in BTC. Hence, if a spot ETF is approved later on, "buyers haven't crowded Ethereum yet," Greg stated.

Ethereum's decreasing supply, reduced fees following the Dencun upgrade, and facilitation of real-world assets in L2s and L3s, among other factors, show rotating into Ethereum will prove a good strategy rather than "selling the news," Greg further mentioned.

Glassnode and CoinDesk analysts have shared similar notions that the upcoming fourth Bitcoin halving may have already been priced in.

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