Ethereum Classic Price Analysis: ETC penalized by red crypto market, needs to hold $47
- Ethereum Classic price tests the critical support defined by the 2018 high of $46.98 for the second time in four days.
- On July 7 ETC triggered a symmetrical triangle pattern with a measured move target of $44.00.
- The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) unites with Anchored VWAP to create daunting resistance between $55 and $57.
Ethereum Classic price is fighting for support at the 2018 high as the broader cryptocurrency complex suffers renewed selling pressure. A daily close below $46.98 targets a continuation of the weakness down to the measured move target and potentially much further if the renewed selling gains momentum. However, if ETC holds the 2018 high good outcomes lie ahead for the digital token.
Ethereum Classic price doubts grow as crypto market is caught on the wrong foot
From June 30 until July 6, Ethereum Classic price quietly formed a minor symmetrical triangle pattern around the Anchored VWAP from March 29 at $55.35 but below the falling 50-day SMA. It was a constructive development following the 90% rally off the June 22 low, but the pattern did not resolve to the upside. Instead, on July 7, it fell below the triangle’s lower trend line, triggering the chart formation.
The measured move of the symmetrical triangle pattern is 19%, putting the ETC price target at $44.00. It would represent a 30% correction from the June 30 rally high of $62.45. The decline is not a crime, but it would put Ethereum Classic price below the 2018 high, thus turning superior support into a resistance problem.
If Ethereum Classic price does not discover support around the measured move target, there are no support levels of note until the convergence of the 200-day SMA at $32.81 with the June 22 low at $32.53 and the descending May trend line, currently at $31.81. A decline to the June 22 low would equate to an ETC loss of 31% from the current price.
To contemplate higher prices, Ethereum Classic price needs to hold the 2018 high. A successful test of $46.98 would provoke a renewal in the rally that originated on June 22. The confirmation level is a daily close above the 50-day SMA at $56.58. After that, ETC investors can target the June 30 high of $62.45, and if the market cooperates, the altcoin could probe the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June correction at $80.75.
ETC/USD daily chart
An increasingly unsettled cryptocurrency market does not enhance the confidence that Ethereum Classic price will remain firm at $46.98. Still, if the climate changes in the risk-on asset class, ETC can reassert some of the leadership, it first demonstrated coming off the June 22 low. Nonetheless, doubts have grown, counseling there is no urgency to accumulate a sizable position in ETC at this moment.
Author
Sheldon McIntyre, CMT
Independent Analyst
Sheldon has 24 years of investment experience holding various positions in companies based in the United States and Chile. His core competencies include BRIC and G-10 equity markets, swing and position trading and technical analysis.
