Jonathan Morgan
Independent Analyst
- Dogecoin continues to move lower, with little support or interest coming into the market.
- DOGE has been trending lower for over 300 days.
- Flash-crash is increasingly likely at its current trading range.
Dogecoin price action has now surpassed 300 days of a downtrend from the prior all-time high on May 8, 2021. Cyclically, DOGE could reverse at any moment, but buyers have to show any interest in DOGE.
Dogecoin price continues to oscillate above and below the lower trendline of a prior rising wedge pattern
Dogecoin price completed an important cyclical event pointing to an imminent bullish reversal between February 28, 2022, and March 1, 2022 – a range that is still close enough to generate a substantial uptrend. The cycle is based on the amount of time Dogecoin has spent in a downtrend compared to the time and price range DOGE made on its run to the all-time high.
One of the 'maxims' in technical analysis is that price will often move in proportion to time. An example of this would be consolidation. The longer a consolidation pattern, the more dramatic and extended the breakout. The inverse of that relationship is also true.
The time range equivalent from November 2020 to the May 8, 2021 rally reached its equilibrium point on February 28/March 1. However, DOGE is still close enough to the end of that cycle to begin a new bullish expansion – technically, Dogecoin price has fifteen days to make that move.
DOGE/USDT Daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart
A large cluster of Fibonacci and Ichimoku resistance above Dogecoin price spread out between the $0.145 and $0.175 value areas. Therefore, if bulls want to confirm a time and price move that would initiate a new bull run, then bulls need to close DOGE on the daily chart at or above $0.175. From there, DOGE will have an easier time moving higher than lower, with $0.25 as the primary target.
Downside risks remain significant. DOGE can very easily (and without warning) collapse towards the $0.09 value area at the current price range due to nearly non-existent trade volume between $0.12 and $0.09.
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