• Bitcoin price is currently indecisive with its direction as it hovers around an inclined trend line.
  • A breakdown followed by a retest of $19,700 seems plausible due to the FOMC meeting.
  • If the $21,000 hurdle is flipped into a support floor, investors can envision BTC tagging $22,106. 

Bitcoin price struggles to establish directional bias as it tangles with a support level. The volatility seems to have dried and is holding out for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled on November 2 at 06:00 GMT. 

Bitcoin price and its outcomes for today’s FOMC

The FOMC meeting has three possible outcomes: the Fed will decide on the interest rate and its stance on the same going forward.

  • The general consensus is a dovish posture with a less than 75 basis points (BPS) hike in interest rates. This decision will be bullish for the market and is likely to propel BTC higher.
  • If the Fed agrees on 75 BPS, this could induce short-term volatility, but the sideways movement will likely continue.
  • More than 75 BPS would be a bearish outlook and would indicate that the Fed is still hawkish and is on the path to tame inflation. This scenario has a greater chance of knocking BTC lower to retest immediate support levels. 

Interest rate hike probability

Interest rate hike probability

Regardless of the Fed’s decision, traders need to be prepared for a spike in volatility and observe certain Bitcoin price levels closely. 

BTC awaits volatility 

Bitcoin price produced higher highs on October 26 and 29, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) set up lower highs. This non-conformity, where the momentum indicator suggests a slowdown, often leads to a price reversal.

So far, Bitcoin price has dropped 2.8% and is currently grappling with the inclined trend line connecting the October 23 swing high and October 28 swing low. This indecision will likely be resolved with a spike in volatility during the FOMC meeting.

Assuming a breakdown of this trend line, traders need to pay close attention to the $19,700 support level and the inefficiency below it, extending up to $19,315. Investors looking to accumulate BTC can do so at these levels.

If the Fed flips its stance and turns dovish, there is a high chance sidelined buyers will step in, triggering a run-up. In such a case, BTC holders can ride this move from $19,315 to the upside inefficiency extending up to $22,106. 

This expansive move in Bitcoin price would amount to 14% in gains and is likely where the short-term outlook for BTC is capped. The big crypto can retest the $25,000 psychological level in a highly bullish case

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

While things are looking up for Bitcoin price, the above scenario is based on the assumption that the Fed will take a dovish stance. On the other hand, if there is a more than 75 bps hike, investors can expect BTC to slice through the downside inefficiency extending up to $19,315 and aim to sweep the June 18 swing lows at $17,593.

Such a development will, no doubt, invalidate the short-term bullish scenario, but a sweep of the said level could trigger a short-term relief rally for Bitcoin price. However, if bears continue their selling spree below $17,593, BTC could revisit the next stable support level at $15,550.

 


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Polygon joins forces with WSPN to expand stablecoin adoption

Polygon joins forces with WSPN to expand stablecoin adoption

WSPN, a stablecoin infrastructure company based in Singapore, has teamed up with Polygon Labs to make its stablecoin, WUSD, more useful in payment and decentralized finance.

More Cryptocurrencies News
Coinbase envisages listing of more meme coins amid regulatory optimism

Coinbase envisages listing of more meme coins amid regulatory optimism

Donald Trump's expected return to the White House creates excitement in the cryptocurrency sector, especially at Coinbase, the largest US-based crypto exchange. The platform is optimistic that the new administration will focus on regulatory clarity, which could lead to more token listings, including popular meme coins.

More Crypto News
BTC hits an all-time high above $97,850, inches away from the $100K mark

BTC hits an all-time high above $97,850, inches away from the $100K mark

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $97,852 on Thursday, and the technical outlook suggests a possible continuation of the rally to $100,000. BTC futures have surged past the $100,000 price mark on Deribit, and Lookonchain data shows whales are accumulating.

More Bitcoin News
Shiba Inu holders withdraw 1.67 trillion SHIB tokens from exchange

Shiba Inu holders withdraw 1.67 trillion SHIB tokens from exchange

Shiba Inu trades slightly higher, around $0.000024, on Thursday after declining more than 5% the previous week. SHIB’s on-chain metrics project a bullish outlook as holders accumulate recent dips, and dormant wallets are on the move, all pointing to a recovery in the cards.

More Shiba Inu News
Bitcoin: New high of $100K or correction to $78K?

Bitcoin: New high of $100K or correction to $78K?

Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $93,265 in the first half of the week, followed by a slight decline in the latter half. Reports highlight that Bitcoin’s current level is still not overvalued and could target levels above $100,000 in the coming weeks.

Read full analysis
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

BTC

ETH

XRP