Can Aptos price pull off a 50% upswing after deep retracement?

• Aptos price dropped below the line in the sand after a firm rejection on Monday.
• APT is lagging together with other major cryptocurrencies on the promised breakout.
• Expect a bullish wave any day now as tail risks diminish.

Aptos (APT) price is set to rocket to the moon with a near 50% gain in its trace as bulls need to start buying into APT. The reason for this comes in the aftermath of the speech by President Putin in Russia that did not hold any specific clues and instead only dealt a pausing of the START treaty as revenge for US President Biden’s visit to Kyiv. Several analysts have pointed to plenty more risks and possible scenarios that have not materialized, which could bring big gains as the probability of tail risks has become significantly smaller. 

Aptos price set to surge as tail risks evaporate

Aptos price is down near 4% this Tuesday during the European session as the promised bullish breakout that was poised to happen this week fails to emerge so far. This bearish impression must not fool traders as a big surge in buying activity could start to pick up after the speech from President Putin in Russia. Whereas several analysts feared that plenty of additional actions and counteractions would be triggered, only the START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) program will be put on hold as retaliation for the delivery of tanks and more funding out of the West.

APT finds support near $13.52 and could be seen rising back toward $14.50 to try and break over the rejection from Monday. Once that happens, the bullish turnaround is established, and APT is set to continue its surge as the geopolitical tail risks have become less severe than first presumed by the markets. Although it might take weeks, $20 could be possible if geopolitical and macro tail risks  keep decreasing at this pace.

APT/USD daily chart

Should Russia have wrong-footed markets with its very soft speech and suddenly revert to unconventional weapons without warning, expect a nosedive move in APT. A break below the monthly pivot at $13.52 is inevitable. From there, the risk of a free fall is quite big. The best guess comes at $11 with the 55-day Simple Moving Average as the counterweight.