Bitcoin’s bearish September may be its best since 2013 ahead of bullish October

• Bitcoin is set to record a gain of at least 9% this September, defying its historical trend of negative returns for the month, with only two prior instances of positive growth since 2013.

• October traditionally favors Bitcoin with only two negative months since 2013, and current market conditions, including global monetary policies and U.S. political support, suggest a continued bullish trend potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $70,000 from around $64,000.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) historically worst month may have be its best one yet, with the asset on track to gain at least 9% this September, beating a trend that’s seen it end in the red eight times since 2013.

And that’s putting the asset on a stronger footing going into October, the start of a generally bullish period with some traders targeting a run to as much as $70,000 in the coming weeks from the current $64,000 levels. A green September has always resulted in bitcoin closing higher in October, November and December.

In contrast to September, there have just been two October months where bitcoin has ended in the red since 2013 - chalking gains of as high as 60% and an average of 22%.

(CoinGlass)

Seasonality is the tendency of assets to experience regular and predictable changes that recur during the calendar year. While it may look random, possible reasons range from profit-taking around tax season in April and May, which causes drawdowns, to the generally bullish “Santa Claus” rally in December, a sign of increased demand.

September has recorded an average value depletion rate of 6.56% in bitcoin, as previously reported, leading to traders being generally defensive about betting on higher prices.

But it gained amid a slew of global monetary easing policies, a weakening yen, increased institutional investments in bitcoin and both political parties in the U.S. - which influence market movements - showing a favorable sentiment toward the crypto market ahead of November elections.

The trend is widely expected to continue.

“With crypto correlations staying high to macro assets, particularly against the SPX, we consider the friendly macro background to remain a strong tailwind for crypto prices into Q4,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

“Furthermore, with the Kamala camp playing lip service to crypto 'support' as part of her campaign rhetoric, we remain bullish on price action in the near term, with targeted put-selling strategies likely to be popular as investors switch into a 'buy-the-dip' mode,” he added.

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