Bitcoin will recover by the year-end, but less than expected

BTC/USD has settled marginally above $5,500 handle.
Tom Lee expects Bitcoin to trade at $15,000 by the end of the year (his previous forecast was $25,000).

One Bitcoin goes for $5,500 at the time of writing as the largest digital coin attempts a recovery from the current intraday low of $5,462.

BTC/USD is 6% higher from 2018 low ($5,182) touched on October 15 amid global cryptocurrency market collapse. The coin has lost over 13.5% in recent 7 days and forced market experts to downgrade their year-end forecasts.

Thus, Fundstrat's CEO and one of the world's prominent Bitcoin bulls Tom Lee chopped its year-end price target nearly in half, from $25,000 to $15,000.

"While bitcoin broke below that psychologically important $6,000, this has lead to a renewed wave of pessimism. But we believe the negative swing in sentiment is much worse than the fundamental implications," he wrote in a client's note.

Mr. Lee says that Bitcoin price will eventually return to the breakeven point, where mining costs match the price. According to Fundstrat's data science team, this level has shifted from $8,00 to $7,000, while Bitcoin's fair value is estimated as 2.2 times of the breakeven price.

Bitcoin's technical picture

Looking technically, BTC/USD will have a hard time trying to regain some grown as the area above the current price is packed with strong resistance levels, created by a host of SMAs. The first short-term hurdle lies with $5,540-50. This area includes the previous 1 and 4-hour highs as well as the host of SMAs. Once it is cleared, the upside may be extended towards $5,590 and $5,600.

On the downside, the support is created by $5,500, followed by the Asian low of $5,462.

BTC/USD, 1-hour chart

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