Bitcoin whales employ ‘wait-and-see strategy’ as price hovers at $96K

Bitcoin whales are standing on the sidelines with their holdings as Bitcoin continues to tease and retrace as it hovers just below $100,000, according to a crypto analyst.

“Although there is currently no immediate selling pressure, the rising inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges highlights a potential risk of future sell-offs,” CryptoQuant contributor Onat Tütüncüler said in a Nov. 2 analyst note. “As such, these movements should be closely monitored to anticipate any possible market impact.” 

Bitcoin whales sidelined

Tütüncüler noted a significant inflow of Bitcoin to crypto exchanges since Donald Trump’s presidential election win on Nov. 5. While large transfers to exchanges typically signal an impending sell-off to market participants, this hasn’t been the case here, suggesting that whales are taking a “wait-and-see” approach instead.

The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) metric — which historically shows a change in the overall market trajectory as profits are absorbed by trading volumes — “does not yet indicate significant profit-taking activity,” he added.

The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) metric graph. Source: CryptoQuant

Typically, in bull runs, traders want to hold onto Bitcoin as long as they believe there is more growth in the short term before rotating into other crypto assets. However, Bitcoin’s dominance suggests that this rotation may be underway, with BTC dominance falling 5.54% since Nov. 28, according to TradingView data.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin (BTC $96,555) is trading at $95,809, according to CoinMarketCap.

The Bitcoin long-term holder realized price — the average price long-term investors paid for their Bitcoin — is $24,994 at the time of publication, showing that the average long-term holder, someone who has held Bitcoin for over 155 days, is up around 3,800% in profit.

Traders skeptical of $100,000 by the end of 2024

Traders expect Bitcoin to hold its current price but remain skeptical about it reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024.

Pseudonymous crypto trader Rekt Capital said in a Dec. 3 X post that “Bitcoin continues to retest the series of Lower Highs as support.”

They added that Bitcoin is “producing longer and longer downside wicks.”

“As long as this continues, BTC should be able to reclaim the ~$96400 support,” they said.

Bitcoin was just $200 away from reaching the $100,000 all-time high on Nov. 22 when it surpassed $99,800.

However, Szymon Sypniewicz, co-founder and CEO of Ramp Network, is uncertain that it will cross the $100,000 mark before the end of 2024. Sypniewicz recently told Cointelegraph:

“While reaching $110,000 for Bitcoin seems inevitable at some point, it’s uncertain whether it will happen before the end of the year, as we can expect the market to experience some ups and downs along the way.”