- Bitcoin price triggers a bullish breakout after developing a bullish divergence the past month ago.
- On-chain metrics and technicals point to a potential Q4 rally that could push BTC to $28,000 and higher.
- This optimistic outlook will be invalidated if BTC shatters the $18,981 support level on a weekly chart.
Bitcoin price is reacting well to the bullish developments that have been taking place over the last month or so. A recent breakout could be the start of a prolonged move up when looked at via the lens of Bitcoin’s historical performance in Q4s stretching over the last decade.
Attached below is a table showing that the average return of Bitcoin price in different quarters since 2009. The average return in Q4 is 27%, which is the highest after Q2’s 21%.
BTC's historical quarterly performance
Whilst historical performance is not a surefire way of predicting the future it is possible that if the cycle repeats in 2022, investors could see an explosive move north over the next two months.
Bitcoin price hints at a continuation of bullish outlook
Bitcoin price saw a bullish divergence on the three-day chart that developed between June 30 and October 25. This technical formation happens when price declines are not reflected in similar falls in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a popular momentum indicator. Such non-confirmation by RSI is usually a sign of weakening bearish momentum and can be indicative of the approach of a market reversal. Bitcoin price eventually saw a massive breakout on October 25, resulting in a 9% upswing in roughly 24 hours. Following this, BTC price underwent a minor pullback to support levels at $19,850 or $19,650 which could turn out to be key accumulation zones for the next leg higher, that could propel BTC to the $25,000 psychological level.
The $25,000 hurdle is the midpoint of the 45% move that occurred between May and June and is a pivotal point in BTC’s journey. Flipping this resistance level into a support floor will indicate a bullish resurgence and propel Bitcoin price to the next significant area, extending between $28,000 and $29,000.
As mentioned in previous articles, these levels are where the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s (CME) Bitcoin chart has gaps in price action since the platform remains closed at weekends. Historically, the big crypto moves in such a way that it rebalances these inefficiencies, making the area between $28,000 and $29,000 a good place to book profits.
In a wildcard scenario, this Bitcoin price rally could extend to the $30,000 psychological level, bringing the total gain to 51%.
BTC/USDT 3-day chart
Although this outlook might at first seem overly bullish, the Supply on Exchanges on-chain metric is reassuring to buyers. The metric works in a contrarian fashion with a fall in supply indicating bullishness and a rise: bearishness. This is explained by the fact that investors tend to move their Bitcoins from more secure wallets to exchanges as a first step before liquidating them. From June 13 to October 27, the supply of BTC on exchanges dropped from 1.92 million to 1.6 million.
This 16% decline indicates investor confidence and suggests that fewer holders are looking to sell their holdings, which is a bullish development.
BTC Supply held on exchanges
Accumulating opportunities on lower time frames
The 9% upswing Bitcoin price witnessed this week was impressive, but it is unsustainable from a lower time frame perspective. The Short Term Holder Spent Output Ration or STH-SOPR indicator is used to determine if investors are selling their holdings at profit, loss or break-even.
If the STH-SOPR is greater than 1, then the short-term holders are selling at a profit, which denotes an increase in selling pressure and could trigger a bearish reversal.
Currently, this on-chain indicator is hovering above 1, hinting at a potential for a pullback.
BTC STH-SOPR
On the one-day chart, the potential levels where Bitcoin price could retest include the 50-day and 30-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $19,847 and $19.640, respectively.
Therefore, accumulating at these levels could yield maximum gains if BTC eventually reaches its destination of $30,000.
BTCUSD 1-day chart
While things are looking up for Bitcoin price, a breakdown of the point of control, aka the highest volume traded level for 2022 at $18,981, would invalidate the bullish thesis for BTC. This development could trigger a further crash that could knock the big crypto down to sweep the June 18 swing low at $17,593.
Here, buyers have another chance to step in, however, accumulate BTC and potentially kick-start a recovery.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: BTC declines as resistance emerges near all-time high
Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching their key support levels, and a sustained close below these marks could lead to further declines.
TON set to launch synthetic Bitcoin to boost its DeFi solutions
TON revealed its plan on Thursday to launch a synthetic Bitcoin token on its blockchain, allowing users to trade, stake, and earn yield using BTC. Following the announcement, TON is down over 3%.
Maker Price Forecast: MKR could stage 40% rally
MakerDAO is up 2% on Thursday and could be set for a 40% rise in the coming weeks if it successfully maintains an extended move above the descending trendline of a falling wedge. On-chain data also supports the bullish outlook after a four-month-long decline.
USDT market cap crosses $120 billion as stablecoins continue their uptrend
The stablecoin market cap continued its uptrend in October, characterized by USDT reaching a $120 billion market cap, according to a CCData report on Thursday. This indicates that investors are preparing liquidity to fuel more demand.
Bitcoin: New all-time high at $78,900 looks feasible
Bitcoin price declines over 2% this week, but the bounce from a key technical level on the weekly chart signals chances of hitting a new all-time high in the short term. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $596 million in inflows until Thursday despite the increased profit-taking activity.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.