- Bitcoin price has overcome the 200-week SMA and 30-day EMA, denoting a major surge in bullish momentum.
- As a result, BTC could revisit anywhere from $25,000 to $30,000 soon.
- A daily candlestick close below 200 four-hour SMA at $21,117 will invalidate this bullish thesis.
Bitcoin price has been extremely bullish ever since July 26, when it kick-started a second bullish leg. Regardless, BTC is yet to face another hurdle that will determine if there are buyers with conviction behind the recent run-up or if it is built on weak-handed longs.
Bitcoin price needs to overcome one more level
Bitcoin price set the last notable swing high on May 31 at $32,375 and dropped roughly 45% in the two weeks or so that followed. This move created a new yearly low at $17,592 and encouraged many investors to scoop up BTC at a discount.
Since then, the big crypto has been consolidating, but using the Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the midpoint of this nosedive is at $25,000.
Many investors rushed to buy BTC at a discount, which created a double bottom pattern on July 3 and July 13, around the $19,239 support level. The result of this formation was a 29% rally that smashed through the 200 four-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $21,116, the 30-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $22,245 and the 200-week SMA at $22,710.
If this trend continues, the next level Bitcoin price will encounter is the midpoint of the previously mentioned range at nearly $25,000.
Judging by the consolidation that occurred between May 13 and June 11, the $28,656 will be the next resistance level that BTC will encounter should it ever overcome the $25,000 barrier.
So, in total, Bitcoin price could rally anywhere between 4% to 19% in the coming weeks.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
Adding credence to this scenario is IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money (GIOM) model. This on-chain index shows that the next cluster of underwater investors extends from $24,100 to $31,400. Here, roughly 1.97 million addresses that purchased roughly 1.16 million BTC at an average price of $29,259 are “Out of the Money.”
Interestingly, this level falls in line with the target obtained from a technical perspective ($28,656). Due to the results’ confluence, investors should expect an 18% run-up in Bitcoin price soon.
BTC GIOM
Three signs of trend exhaustion
Bitcoin price rally has been a relief to investors, no doubt, but the double bottom created around the $19,239 support level has sell-side liquidity resting below it. Hence, a breakdown of this trend that pushes BTC back below the 200-week SMA at the $22,710 support level will be the first sign of weakness.
Observing the weekly close will provide a much better outlook in this regard.
Furthermore, a breakdown of the 30-day EMA at $22,245 will indicate that the daily trend is also collapsing and will serve as a tailwind for the bearish pressure.
The final nail in the coffin would be a daily candlestick close below the 200 four-hour SMA at $21,115.
If these conditions are met, investors should exercise caution and refrain from taking massive risks. Beyond the $21,115 barrier rests a massive yet stable support area, extending from $20,000 to $19,000.
This level is a make-or-break point for Bitcoin price since it consists the 2022’s highest traded level, aka point of control, and also the weekly support level at $19,000.
BTC/USD 1-week chart
Therefore, a breakdown of this support area will spell trouble not just for bulls but also for the investors that purchased BTC at $17,000 as it could trigger a crash to $11,898.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
![Ethereum has lost its “ultra” sound money status, faces key rectangle resistance hurdle](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Digital%20Currencies/Ethereum/Ethereum_Coins_31_03_XtraSmall.jpg)
Ethereum has lost its “ultra” sound money status, faces key rectangle resistance hurdle
Ethereum is up 0.5% on Thursday following a recent analysis showing that the top altcoin lost its "ultra" sound money narrative. Meanwhile, ETH ETFs recorded net inflows for the first time after nine days of consecutive outflows.
![Solana bears dominate market as SunPump has potentially led to less demand for SOL](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Cryptocurrencies/Solana/Solana_Crypto_31_XtraSmall.jpg)
Solana bears dominate market as SunPump has potentially led to less demand for SOL
Solana is down 2.5% on Thursday following bearish signals across its funding rate and total fees captured. SOL's weak performance could also be linked to the declining traction seen in its meme coin generation platform Pump.fun.
![AI tokens see narrow gains as Wall Street banks raise price targets on NVDA](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Cryptocurrencies/PEPE/PEPE_coin_2_XtraSmall.jpg)
AI tokens see narrow gains as Wall Street banks raise price targets on NVDA
AI tokens NEAR, ICP, RENDER and TAO briefly traded in the green on Thursday following Wall Street banks' positivity toward Nvidia's earnings report. While a correction followed, these tokens could rally if NVDA meets expectations.
![XRP back above $0.57 even as Ripple traders take $8 million in profits](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Cryptocurrencies/cryptos_XtraSmall.jpg)
XRP back above $0.57 even as Ripple traders take $8 million in profits
Ripple (XRP) traders have consistently taken profits on their holdings in the last two weeks, per Santiment data. Once again, traders have grabbed $8.36 million in profit so far on Thursday. Typically, profit-taking negatively influences the asset as it increases the selling pressure.
![Bitcoin: Will BTC continue its ongoing decline?](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Currencies/Digital%20Currencies/Bitcoin/bitcoin_5_XtraSmall.jpg)
Bitcoin: Will BTC continue its ongoing decline?
Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $59,000 on Friday, but it has lost 7.5% this week so far after being rejected around the daily resistance of $65,000. The decline is supported by lower demand from the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which registered a net outflow of $103.8 million, falling Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Index, and a spike in Network Realized Profit/Loss. However, some investors seem to be taking the chance to buy BTC amid this price dip, as shown by the Exchange Netflow data.
![Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/IT/Testing/Review/FXSBadgeCertifiedBackg_XtraSmall.png)
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.