Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Fed’s interest decision will be key to BTC directional bias


  • Bitcoin price has failed to muster the strength to push through the $29,630 to $30,480 bearish breaker.
  • As a result, investors can expect BTC to linger below the $30,000 psychological level with a potential for a retest of $25,000.
  • Macroeconomic events scheduled in the first and second week of May will likely induce volatility in anticipation.

Bitcoin price shows no signs of bullish momentum as it hovers below a critical psychological level. This lack of buying pressure could be a result of exhaustion after BTC’s impressive rally in Q1 of 2023. With two major macroeconomic events on the horizon, traders are likely going to position themselves in the direction of the most probable outcome. 

Also read: Bitcoin price action from 2019 hints what could happen to BTC in 2023

Bitcoin price and what technicals indicate 

Bitcoin price has failed to sustain its uptrend after its recent plummet from $30,000 to $27,200. Although bulls tried to run BTC back up, they faced a lot of selling pressure around the bearish breaker, extending from $29,630 to $30,480. After two failed attempts, the big crypto is currently hovering around $29,200.

Investors expect a consolidation or a slow bleed that sweeps Monday’s low at $26,933. If bears are persistent, they might get Bitcoin price to target the sell-stop liquidity resting below equal lows at $26,555. 

The ideal Bitcoin price target for long-term accumulation, as mentioned in previous publications, would be $25,175 and the Fair Value Gap (FVG) extending from $23,966 to $22,139. 

Read more: CFTC’s largest Bitcoin fraud case requires CEO to pay $1.73 billion penalty

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

Macroeconomic events and their impact on Bitcoin price

The Federal Reserve’s decisions have had a significant effect on Bitcoin price due to the historic correlation between the BTC and the S&P 500. However, this correlation saw a stark decline from a peak of 0.87 in January to 0.36 in April.

BTC vs. S&P 500 correlation chart

BTC vs. S&P 500 correlation chart

The Fed’s interest rate decision in the second quarter of 2023 will probably see a 25 basis point hike, pushing the interest rate from 5% to 5.25%. If the Fed deviates from this plan and proposes a more-than-25-basis-point hike, it would be a hawkish stance that denotes a stronger US Dollar, causing the stock market and the Bitcoin price to plummet. 

So, investors need to be careful trading Bitcoin price next week due to the volatility this macroeconomic event could bring. In addition to the interest rate decision on May 3, the jobs report or Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on May 9 and the Inflation rate on May 10 will be another event to watch for volatility traders.

Read more: PCE Preview: Crypto market outlook around US Personal Consumption Expenditures release


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Crypto Today: Cardano, XLM, FLOKI lead $3.1 trillion rally, Russia bans crypto mining, Bitcoin eyes $95K

Crypto Today: Cardano, XLM, FLOKI lead $3.1 trillion rally, Russia bans crypto mining, Bitcoin eyes $95K

Cardano (ADA) price action ADA’s ongoing rally has been attributed to rumors that the Trump administration could collaborate with the Cardano network to build a blockchain voting system.

More Cryptocurrencies News
Trump administration allegedly seeks to create new crypto position in White House

Trump administration allegedly seeks to create new crypto position in White House

President-elect Donald Trump and his team are reportedly seeking to introduce a new White House position for crypto policy, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.

More Crypto News
Solana Price Forecast: Traders move 6.7B SOL as bulls target all-time highs

Solana Price Forecast: Traders move 6.7B SOL as bulls target all-time highs

Solana price has succumbed to a 7% dip after rejecting the $250 resistance on Monday. Negative shifts in vital trading indicators suggest bears could delay the all-time high breakout target. 

More Solana News
FLOKI to go live on Coinbase few days after the exchange listed PEPE and WIF

FLOKI to go live on Coinbase few days after the exchange listed PEPE and WIF

Floki Inu (FLOKI) is down 5% on Wednesday following crypto exchange Coinbase's announcement that the token will begin trading on its platform over the next 24 hours.

More Crypto News
Bitcoin: New high of $100K or correction to $78K?

Bitcoin: New high of $100K or correction to $78K?

Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $93,265 in the first half of the week, followed by a slight decline in the latter half. Reports highlight that Bitcoin’s current level is still not overvalued and could target levels above $100,000 in the coming weeks.

Read full analysis
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

BTC

ETH

XRP