Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC uptrend capped by supply barrier at $43,860 as FOMO fails to suffice


  • Bitcoin price upside potential has been capped by the $43,860 resistance level, the mean threshold of a weekly supply zone.
  • With FOMO falling short, a correction to $30,000 seems likely for BTC as markets tend not to wait too long.
  • On the other hand, Santiment analysts believe if the same FOMO continues it could drive the king of crypto to $50,000.
  • A break and close above $43,860 on the weekly timeframe could bring the $50,000 psychological level within reach.

Bitcoin (BTC) price uptrend has sustained since mid-September on the weekly timeframe but has since slowed down following the lack of tailwinds to drive the market. All along, narratives, themes and speculation were the driving factors, inspiring a wave of fear of missing out (FOMO) in the market. As it turns out, FOMO is not enough anymore.

Also Read: Bitcoin price scrapes $44K: Is $50K next as BTC crosses the midline of a weekly supply zone?

Bitcoin price stalls as FOMO fails to suffice

Bitcoin (BTC) price’s uptrend came as traders and investors rode speculation around three narratives. First, the perception exists that November and the fourth quarter (Q4) has historically been a good month for Bitcoin in terms of returns. Secondly, anticipation grew for spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETFs) approvals by the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), and finally the countdown for the BTC halving continues to close in.

With Q4 expectations seemingly already priced in, having delivered upwards of 65% in gains since October, all that is left is the spot BTC ETF and the halving. However, after a series of back and forth between the US Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and institutional players, including delays and amendments, the narrative has run out of steam with the market now looking to the hard deadline of between January 5 and 10 for bundled spot ETF approvals. Unless an approval comes sooner, or fundamentally bullish news arrives, January is the next time the ETF narrative could inspire volatility in crypto.

Fast forward to April 2024, when the BTC halving is expected, anticipation brews that it will kick-start the next bull run cycle.

The market has been front-running the three narratives, with special emphasis on the last two – ETFs and halving. The fear of missing out on the rally associated with these events drove the market entirely on speculation as none of them have happened so far. This was until Bitcoin price met the weekly supply barrier extending from $40,698 to $46,999.

According Santiment, traders are fearful that crypto markets may currently be in a bull trap, observing that capital is flowing away from BTC and into the altcoin market. This is evidenced by Ethereum price coaxing the altcoin category to blast off.

Meanwhile, as FOMO fades, it is imperative to note that, “Markets historically move in the direction of the crowd's least expectation,” according to Santiment, meaning prices certainly are capable of continuing to rise, but probabilities point to this not happening until the FOMO calms down.

Jamie Coutts, a popular blockchain analyst who reportedly built the crypto research product at Bloomberg, says Bitcoin price is venturing into the Belief / Denial zone where 25-30% pullbacks can start appearing regularly.

In his opinion,  every BTC holder will soon experience the compulsion to sell. However, he observes that on-chain metrics, such as illiquid supply and long-term holders, show that “this bull market started from a much higher base level of conviction than ever before.”

Another trader, Ash Crypto, believes “2024 is going to be massive for Bitcoin, speculating $100k+ for BTC, steered by key drivers.”

Nevertheless, this may not be realized until Bitcoin price overcomes the critical roadblock at $43,860.

Bitcoin price outlook as $43,860 proves impenetrable

Investors need to watch for a decisive candlestick close above the $43,860 mean threshold on the weekly timeframe to confirm the continuation of the trend. Key levels to watch once this resistance level has been flipped to a support floor include $54,763. In a highly bullish case, the $66,098 range high is possible.

In extremely ambitious cases, Bitcoin price could extend a neck higher to tag the $69,000 psychological level, standing 57% above current levels.

The Bollinger Bands indicator suggests Bitcoin price will continue to edge higher as the candle has broken out above the upper band of the Bollinger indicator at $41,881.

BTC/USDT 1-week chart

On the flip side, if the $43,860 levels holds as a resistance level, Bitcoin price could pull south, testing the centerline of the Bollinger Bands and at $31,144. In a more dire scenario, BTC could extend the losses below the $30,000 psychological level. 


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Is Altcoin Season here as Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high?

Is Altcoin Season here as Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high?

Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high of $98,384 on Thursday, with altcoins following the suit. Reports highlight that the recent surge in altcoins was fueled by the victory of crypto-friendly candidate Donal Trump in the US presidential election.

More Altcoin News
Shanghai court confirms legal recognition of crypto ownership

Shanghai court confirms legal recognition of crypto ownership

A Shanghai court has confirmed that owning digital assets, including Bitcoin, is legal under Chinese law. Judge Sun Jie of the Shanghai Songjiang People’s Court shared this opinion through the WeChat account of the Shanghai High People’s Court.

More Cryptocurrencies News
BTC hits an all-time high above $97,850, inches away from the $100K mark

BTC hits an all-time high above $97,850, inches away from the $100K mark

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $97,852 on Thursday, and the technical outlook suggests a possible continuation of the rally to $100,000. BTC futures have surged past the $100,000 price mark on Deribit, and Lookonchain data shows whales are accumulating.

More Bitcoin News
Shiba Inu holders withdraw 1.67 trillion SHIB tokens from exchange

Shiba Inu holders withdraw 1.67 trillion SHIB tokens from exchange

Shiba Inu trades slightly higher, around $0.000024, on Thursday after declining more than 5% the previous week. SHIB’s on-chain metrics project a bullish outlook as holders accumulate recent dips, and dormant wallets are on the move, all pointing to a recovery in the cards.

More Shiba Inu News
Bitcoin: New high of $100K or correction to $78K?

Bitcoin: New high of $100K or correction to $78K?

Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $93,265 in the first half of the week, followed by a slight decline in the latter half. Reports highlight that Bitcoin’s current level is still not overvalued and could target levels above $100,000 in the coming weeks.

Read full analysis
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

BTC

ETH

XRP