Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC cool-off prepares markets for crypto’s final two weeks of 2023

• Bitcoin price has consolidated within the weekly supply zone, extending from $40,423 to $47,209 for the past two weeks.
• The weekly RSI has never reached levels this high without kicking off a raging bull market, analyst notes.
• BTC is likely giving traders a chance to buy the cool off before breaking past the $48,000 psychological level.
• The bullish thesis will be invalidated once the king of crypto breaks and closes below the critical support at $37,800.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has shown resilience in December, resisting selling pressure coming from a weekly supply barrier. It comes as traders exercise patience, resisting the urge to book profits and looking at the bigger picture as 2024 has multiple bullish catalysts lined up for Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin price cool-off is a possible entry for investors before 2024

Bitcoin price has cooled off, spending the first two weeks of December within the weekly supply zone, stretching between $40,423 and $47,209. Typically, this would have been a strong rejection and, therefore, a turnaround point for Bitcoin price, but this has not happened. Instead, traders continue to plan their trades.

The breather comes as Bitcoin price ascended to its golden ratio multiplier near-term target, as indicated by the Crosby Ratio. This metric reveals Bitcoin’s near-term price at “over-extended levels,” causing the urge for a slow down, or in the dire case, a correction.

Bitcoin Crosby Ratio chart

Meanwhile, anticipation for spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues to brew, with experts marking the calendar for between January 5 and 10. This, together with the BTC halving expected around April 2024, has BTC holders keeping their selling appetite in check, anticipating the next bull run.

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BTC Weekly RSI reaches levels where it had created bull markets

Bitcoin price has more upside potential and could rally past the $48,000 psychological level ahead of the expected 2024 bull market. For starters, one trader, @CryptoJelleNL, has evaluated the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator, establishing that it is at historical levels. The trader says, “BTC RSI has never reached levels this high without kicking off a raging bull market.”

BTC weekly RSI

If the same repeats, Bitcoin price could nuke, recording another hard pump that could potentially set the tone for the 2024 bull market. As the new year is barely two weeks out, this could happen sooner than expected.

The technicals suggest that the bulls are poised to enjoy the potential rally, with the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator showing green histogram bars. Its position in the positive territory, as well as that of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), accentuate the bullish outlook.

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On-chain data: GIOM

IntoTheBlock’s “Global In/Out of the Money” (GIOM) model reveals there is only one supply barrier that could prevent the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization from achieving its upside potential. Based on this on-chain metric, the major area of interest lies between $43,211 and $67,413, which is filled by a high number of sellers that had previously purchased BTC around this price level. Here, roughly 6.11 million addresses are holding nearly 2.24 million BTC.

The data also shows that Bitcoin price has robust support downward than the overhead pressure it faces. Any efforts to push Bitcoin price lower would be countered by buying pressure from all these addresses.

BTC GIOM

If Bitcoin price manages to record a weekly candlestick close above the mean threshold (midline) of the weekly supply zone at $43,860, it could initiate the continuation of the uptrend, setting the tone for BTC to target the $48,000 psychological level.

The next logical target for Bitcoin price beyond the $48,000 level would be $50,000 or, in highly bullish cases, the $60,000 psychological level.

BTC/USDT 1-week chart

Conversely, if sellers have their say, Bitcoin price could pull south, potentially losing the $40,000 psychological level. In the dire case, the slump could see BTC break and close below the $37,800 support floor, where the bullish thesis would be invalidated.

Also Read: Ethereum leads altcoins north as Bitcoin halts amid bull trap fears

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