- Bitcoin opened Friday's session at $83,000, posting 8% gains from the weekly low of $76,000.
- Intensifying US-Canada trade war rhetoric has overshadowed crypto investors’ reaction to easing inflation.
- With market volumes declining for the third consecutive week, BTC faces major downside risks.
- Polymarket bettors price in a 99% chance of a Fed rate pause in March, while the odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire nearing 75%.
Bitcoin price remained constrained within a tight 8% channel between $76,000 and $84,472 this week. With conflicting market catalysts preventing prolonged directional swings, here are key factors that moved BTC prices this week, as well as key indicators to watch in the weeks ahead.
Bitcoin (BTC) price stabilizes above $80,000 as Trump trade war on Canada weakens retail demand
Bitcoin (BTC) faces considerable volatility this week. With conflicting market signals counteracting short-term, traders were unable to establish any dominant directional trend across the crypto markets this week.
Bitcoin price action | BTCUSD Weekly Chart | Source: TradingView
The current price chart shows BTC trading above the $83,300 mark on Friday. In relative terms: Bitcoin is posting 3% gains for the week, rising from the opening price of around $80,700 on Sunday.
This represents a significant recovery compared to last week when United States President Donald Trump’s confirmation of trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico had triggered an 8% sell-off with over $900 million in liquidations.
In other notable price movements this week, Bitcoin prices briefly plunged below the $80,000 support for three consecutive days between Tuesday and Thursday.
Bitcoin price may face weaker support if prices plunge that low in the coming week, as recent retests may have prompted traders to adjust their stop losses or close out long positions to avoid losses from the next retest.
Key events that influenced BTC price action this week:
Trump’ trade war overhang nullifies positive CPI and PPI impact
The Trump trade war narrative has intensified since the start of March, with Canada’s ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promising retaliatory measures.
Heading into the week, global markets were on edge due to inflation risks in the initial US Non-farm Payrolls data released last Friday.
However, those fears eased momentarily after the US CPI and PPI data showed easing inflation metrics this week.
US CPI data, March 2025 | Source: TradingEconomics
Historically, Bitcoin demand surges when markets anticipate less hawkish Fed decisions, but current macro pressures surrounding the trade war are suppressing risk appetite, especially among retail traders.
Bitcoin ETFs bought $13 million this week, but selling spree continues
Bitcoin ETFs saw $143 million in outflows on Thursday, following $13 million in inflows on Wednesday—the first positive flows since the start of March.
In total, investors withdrew another $830 million this week, bringing total outflows in March to $1.7 billion.
Bitcoin ETF Flows | March 2025 | Source: SosoValue
Persistent ETF sell-offs continue to fuel short-term volatility in Bitcoin prices as uncertainty around the US trade war and Trump’s crypto strategic reserve proposal unsettles investors.
Bitcoin latest news:
Florida Governorship candidate Byron Donalds pushes bill to protect Trump’s Bitcoin reserve policy from future reversal
Florida governor candidate Byron Donalds is preparing to introduce legislation to codify Donald Trump’s executive order establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Bloomberg reported on Friday.
The bill aims to prevent future administrations from overturning Trump’s policy, which allows the US Treasury to hold 200,000 Bitcoin and prohibits the sale of reserve Bitcoin. Donalds positioned the move as a defense against what he calls the Democrats’ “war on crypto.”
The bill faces significant hurdles, requiring 60 votes in the Senate and a majority in the House of Representatives to advance.
Texas proposes $250 million Bitcoin reserve bill
Texas lawmakers have introduced HB 4258, a legislative proposal to allocate $250 million from the state's economic stabilization fund to Bitcoin and other digital assets.
The bill follows SB 778, which recently gained bipartisan support in the Texas Senate. If enacted, HB 4258 would take effect in 2025 and allow municipalities and counties to invest up to $10 million in digital assets.
Looking ahead: Geopolitical risks and Fed rate pause could drive BTC price gains next week
The overhang of multiple bearish macro pressures means that Bitcoin price remains at major downside risks despite 3% gains this week.
On the positive side, crypto bettors on prediction market platforms Polymarkets anticipate a Fed rate pause next week, while others are counting on easing geopolitical pressure between Russia and Ukraine.
Polymarket bettors price in 99% chance of a Fed rate cut pause in March, with odds on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire nearing 80%.
Odds on US Fed decision in March | Source: Polymarket
If these expectations materialize, improved risk appetite could drive renewed inflows into Bitcoin and crypto assets, supporting further upside momentum next week.
Bitcoin price forecast for the week ahead: $75K reversal or $90K rebound?
Bitcoin price is trading at $84,833.67 after posting 5% gains the week.
However, with BTC yet to recoup last week’s 8% losses, technical indicators show that bulls are not in complete dominance of the markets.
First, the Parabolic SAR dots remain above the current BTC price, indicating bearish momentum.
Likewise, the Bollinger Bands show tightening volatility, with resistance at $110,676 and support near $76,505.
Bitcoin Price Forecast | BTCUSD Weekly Chart
If delayed Fed rate hike and easing geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia ease up, Bitcoin price must break above the mid-Bollinger Band at $93,591, it could signal a return to bullish momentum.
Conversely, a bearish breakdown could see Bitcoin testing the lower Bollinger Band at $76,505.
Increased sell volume, as seen in recent weeks, suggests a risk of deeper downside. In this scenario, a close below $75,000 could accelerate selling pressure, leading to a potential retest of $68K or lower.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH consolidates below $2,000 as Standard Chartered alters its prediction for 2025
Ethereum remained just below $2,000 in the Asian session on Tuesday as Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, updated the bank's 2025 price forecast for ETH.
Solana price faces 50-day resistance as SOL futures debut on CME Group with $5M volume on fifth anniversary
Solana (SOL) stagnated around the $128 mark on Monday despite multiple bullish catalysts. The recent SOL unlocks by Alameda Research, ahead of FTX creditor repayments, have created a persistent bearish overhang since early March.
Canary Capital proposes first-ever Sui ETF following S-1 filing with the SEC
SUI saw slight gains on Monday as Canary Capital submitted an S-1 application with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a Sui exchange-traded fund (ETF). This adds to the growing list of altcoin ETF filings awaiting approvals from the regulator.
Outflows in crypto funds reach $6.4 billion over five weeks amid long-term holder accumulation
Crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) extended their outflow streak last week, totaling $1.7 billion, bringing the total outflows in the past 5 weeks to $6.4 billion, per CoinShares weekly report on Monday.
Bitcoin: BTC at risk of $75,000 reversal as Trump’s trade war overshadows US easing inflation
Bitcoin price remained constrained within a tight 8% channel between $76,000 and $84,472 this week. With conflicting market catalysts preventing prolonged directional swings, here are key factors that moved BTC prices this week, as well as key indicators to watch in the weeks ahead.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.