Bitcoin targets 100K as Trump softens his tone on China and BTC ETF demand soars

Bitcoin has risen over 6% in the past 24 hours, putting gains at 12% across the past 7 days and 20% from the 74.4k low hit on April 7. The gains have not been isolated to Bitcoin, with cryptocurrencies across the board jumping higher.  BNB and XRP have risen 2% and 7% across the past 24 hours, Ethereum has surged 10%, and SOL has jumped 9%. The total crypto market capitalization has risen to $3 trillion for the first time since early March, as altcoins follow Bitcoin higher. 

What is driving Bitcoin’s rally? 

The Trump administration’s trade tariff policies have been a key driver of sentiment in recent weeks. The latest development is a significant de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China, which is aiding a rally in risk assets. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the tariff standoff with China as “unsustainable,” hinting at a de-escalation. Trump then said that tariffs against China would probably come down, signaling a possible softer stance from the Trump administration.  

The renewed confidence in global trade has spurred a risk-on move, with Bitcoin rising above 94k. US stocks are set to open over 2% higher, adding to gains of over 2% yesterday.  

Meanwhile, crypto-specific news is also upbeat with the swearing in of Paul Atkins as the new SEC Commissioner. Aitkins, who is an active cryptocurrency supporter, stated that his top priority would be to establish a firm regulatory foundation that was rational, coherent, and principled.  

Short liquidations surge to a five-month high 

While the macro backdrop is improving, the crypto market is also being supported by a wave of short liquidations. Over the past 24 hours, Coinglass data shows that $617 million positions were liquidated, with $517 million of those representing short position liquidations. This marked the biggest short squeeze so far this year. Short liquidations of this level were last seen on November 6 last year. 

Institutional demand returns 

BTC ETFs saw $936.43 million in net inflows on April 22, bringing this week’s net inflows to $1.32 billion. This marks the largest daily BTC ETF inflow since the day President Trump took office and Bitcoin surged to a record high. Signs of renewed institutional interest come as Bitcoin ETFs flip back to net inflows after a period of significant outflows. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

BTC/USD has extended its recovery from 74.4k, rising above key resistance levels, such as the multi-month falling trendline dating back to the 109.5k ATH, the 50 and 200 SMA, and 90k, to reach its peak of 94k. This, combined with the RSI above 50, keeps buyers optimistic of further gains. 

The next key level for the bulls is the 100k psychological level. A rise above 100k would bring 105k into focus ahead of 109.5k and fresh record highs. 

On the downside, immediate support is at 90k, the round number, and the 100 SMA. Below here, the 200 SMA comes into focus at 88.5k. A break below 85k would negate the near-term rise and bring 80k into play. 

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