- Experts argue that the Stock-to-flow model can no longer be used for serious price prediction.
- Plan B, the model's creator, has now set a new target for Bitcoin price in 2022.
- Analysts predict further downside in Bitcoin price trend, and set a target of $38,000 for mid-January.
Bitcoin Stock-to-flow model created by Plan B has been invalidated as the asset closes in 2021 below $100,000. Analysts have a bearish outlook on Bitcoin price for the first quarter of 2022.
Bitcoin S2F invalidated, creator argues model remains valid
The creator of the Stock-to-flow model (S2F) continues to remain bullish on Bitcoin. Plan B's prediction that Bitcoin price would hit $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December was invalidated.
Plan B believes that S2F is intact despite the price prediction model's failure. The analyst was quoted as saying,
"BTC will rebound between 50,000 and 200,000 through 2024. We are at 50,000, the current ath is 69,000, and we will likely hit 200,000 before that. 2024."
Let me be clear:
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 24, 2021
1) Nov98K & Dec135K miss = FLOOR MODEL FAIL
2) Dec100K miss: I have said earlier that if BTC<$100K Dec2021, then S2F is “off the rails” “invalidated” “dead”. Tbh that was an ill attempt to clarify “$100K average this cycle” & regression analysis. S2F MODEL INTACT pic.twitter.com/LRdfLinTm4
The creator has changed his prediction and asked users to wait for the next two and a half years before invalidating S2F. Plan B argued,
If BTC stays within 1sd [standard deviation] band for the next 2.5 yrs, then the S2F model is still valid and indeed useful for me. Of course, you should make your own call.
Plan B's S2F has been severely criticized by @davthewave, a crypto analyst and educator.
It's a wrap.
— dave the wave (@davthewave) January 1, 2022
s2f as a model for *serious price prediction* has been invalidated
That doesn't mean to say it hasn't been a very successful *meme*, and some may choose to continue with it as a meme
The original thread was about drawing that distinction https://t.co/2TVAFRur0h
As Bitcoin price continues its downtrend, @CryptoWarrior01, a crypto analyst, has predicted continuation and set a target of $38,000 to $40,000 by mid-January 2022.
$BTC heading into the New Year currently not shaping up for bulls.
— RNB (Crypto Warrior) (@CryptoWarrior01) December 31, 2021
- OBV trending bear
-MACD bullish diverging from previous downtrend, but expecting more downside
-7MA also has price action as resistance.
$38k-40k by mid Jan - then moon
join me @ https://t.co/vyCxNDfacc pic.twitter.com/g3SioFFBLw
FXStreet analysts believe that Bitcoin price could retest $50,000 and try to advance to the $53,000 target.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Whale grabs 16,000 ETH as Ethereum Foundation vows support for L1, RWA and stablecoins
Ethereum Foundation's Co-Executive Director Tomasz K. Stańczak highlights simplified roadmap scaling blobs and improving L1 performance. Ethereum whale scoops 16,000 ETH, emphasizing growing interest in the token as the price recovers.
Bitcoin retests key resistance at $85K, breakout to $90K or rejection to $78K?
Bitcoin (BTC) price edges higher and approaches its key resistance at $85,000 on Monday, with a breakout indicating a bullish trend ahead. Metaplanet announced Monday that it purchased an additional 319 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 4,525 BTC.
XRP price teases breakout, bulls defend $2 support
Ripple (XRP) price grinds higher and trades at $2.15 during the early European session on Monday. The token sustained a bullish outlook throughout the weekend supported by bullish sentiment from the 90-day tariff suspension in the United States.
Senator Elizabeth Warren launches fresh offensive on crypto
Senators Elizabeth Warren, Mazie K. Hirono, and Dick Durbin want the DoJ’s decision to terminate crypto investigations reversed. The Senators raise concerns over the DoJ’s shift in priorities, terming it a “grave mistake.”
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Market uncertainty lingers, Trump’s 90-day tariff pause sparks modest recovery
Bitcoin (BTC) price extends recovery to around $82,500 on Friday after dumping to a new year-to-date low of $74,508 to start the week. Market uncertainty remains high, leading to a massive shakeout, with total liquidations hitting $2.18 billion across crypto markets.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.