- Bitcoin volatility has compressed to historical lows and analysts are evaluating both bull and bear market cases for BTC.
- Despite the $1.5 billion overhang of miner deleveraging and decline in BTC price volatility, analysts have noted massive conviction in Bitcoin holders.
- Analysts believe Bitcoin price could witness a breakout soon, set a bullish target of $28,500.
Analysts at crypto intelligence tracker Glassnode argue that Bitcoin’s volatility has hit historical lows and a breakout in BTC is likely. Evaluating both the bullish and bearish scenario for Bitcoin price, analysts noted a conviction among BTC holders in the bear market.
Also read: FTX user hit by million dollar loss overnight, lost hundreds of Ethereum tokens, Bitcoin
What to expect from Bitcoin after volatility hits historical lows
Glassnode analysts evaluated Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics and noted that the asset has come to resemble stablecoins in terms of its volatility. Bitcoin has been trading within an incredibly tight $869 range over the past week. The weekly low was $18,793 and the high $19,662.
BTC-USD weekly price chart
It's important to note since periods of extremely low volatility for Bitcoin are very rare and are typically followed by a substantial breakout higher or lower. Analysts therefore armed themselves with a bull and a bear case scenario from a primarily on-chain perspective.
Analysts observed that the volume of coins transferred in Bitcoin transactions hitting Glassnode’s nodes mempool has witnessed a sustained burst higher since September 2022. The mempool is where all the valid transactions wait to be confirmed by the Bitcoin network.
A high mempool size indicates more network traffic which will result in longer average confirmation time and higher priority fees. Coupled with the high volume of Bitcoin transferred there was a very modest increase in average fee rate paid. These metrics provide a potential view of a changing tide, with a sustained uptrend this increases the odds of a true market recovery.
Bitcoin: Mempool total volume of BTC
Analysts set bullish target of $28,500 for Bitcoin
El Crypto Prof, a pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst, predicts there will be a serious move in BTC. The 116-day and 137-day moving averages are about to cross each other. The analyst argues that every time these lines cross, there is a significant rally in Bitcoin price. The analyst set a bullish target of $28,500 for Bitcoin price in the event of a breakout.
BTC-USD price chart
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
XRP gains as traders gear up for futures ETFs debut this week
XRP climbs over 3% on Monday, hovering around $2.33 at the time of writing. The rally is likely catalyzed by key market movers like XRP futures Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) approval by the US financial regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and a bullish outlook.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC eyes $97,000 as institutional inflow surges $3.06 billion in a week
Bitcoin (BTC) price is stabilizing above $94,000 at the time of writing on Monday, following a 10% rally the previous week. The institutional demand supports a bullish thesis, as US spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded a total inflow of $3.06 billion last week, the highest weekly figure since mid-November.
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH ETFs post first weekly inflows since February
Ethereum (ETH) recovered the $1,800 price level on Saturday after US spot Ether ETFs (exchange-traded funds) recorded their first weekly inflows since February.
Defi Development Corporation files to offer $1 billion in securities to boost its Solana holdings
Defi Development Corporation (formerly Janover) filed a registration statement with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) on Friday, signaling its intent to offer and sell a wide range of securities, including common and preferred stock, debt instruments and warrants for the purchase of equity
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC consolidates after posting over 10% weekly surge
Bitcoin (BTC) price is consolidating around $94,000 at the time of writing on Friday, holding onto the recent 10% increase seen earlier this week.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.