• Bitcoin "danger zone" has done its job with two 18% pullbacks.
  • Perhaps the bear cycle does not dip as hard with different types of buyers entering this cycle.
  • Historically, Bitcoin has peaked in its bull market 518 to 546 days after the halving.

Bitcoin (BTC) price action over the past few weeks has had traders at the edge of their seats amid skyrocketing volatility. It comes as the hype around the halving climaxes, with traders watching for the event expected to kick off the next cycle. 

Also Read: All eyes on Bitcoin price as CNN calls halving the ‘World Cup for BTC’

Daily digest market movers: When should Bitcoin peak post-halving?

Bitcoin halving is here, an event expected to raise the curtain on the next market cycle. There has been a lot of turbulence in the market of late. Events such as flows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and tensions in the Middle East between Iran and Israel have sent traders into their shells. However, there could be some relief in the market after Iranian officials indicated there are no plans to retaliate against an Israeli strike on Friday.

With markets recording a slowdown in BTC acquisitions, it is imperative to observe that Bitcoin has managed to successfully close above the $60,000 psychological level for 50 successive days. More closely, it has been able to protect the range low of its re-accumulation range for two consecutive weeks. 

Historically, Bitcoin price slows down in its upside momentum around the halving, often retracing, but momentum decisively picks back up in the months after the event. Analysts are saying the halving has already been priced in, an assumption that begs the question: When could Bitcoin peak in this bull market?

  • Historically, Bitcoin has peaked in its bull market 518 to 546 days after the halving, a pattern that typically shows how BTC halving cycles have progressed.
  • If history repeats or at best rhymes, the next bull market peak may occur around mid-September or mid-October 2025.

Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high of $73,777 approximately 260 days ahead of schedule compared to historical norms. The past few weeks, however, pre-halving retraces have dominated. Analysts from Rekt Capital speculate that BTC price could perform a bull market top 266-315 days after it reclaims its peak.

  

The opposite seems likely for altcoins, with analysts anticipating an explosive run in their market capitalization after the BTC halving.

Meanwhile, the "danger zone" for Bitcoin price, where pre-halving retraces tend to occur, appears to have completed successfully after two 18% pullbacks. 

Cryptocurrency prices FAQs

Token launches like Arbitrum’s ARB airdrop and Optimism OP influence demand and adoption among market participants. Listings on crypto exchanges deepen the liquidity for an asset and add new participants to an asset’s network. This is typically bullish for a digital asset.

A hack is an event in which an attacker captures a large volume of the asset from a DeFi bridge or hot wallet of an exchange or any other crypto platform via exploits, bugs or other methods. The exploiter then transfers these tokens out of the exchange platforms to ultimately sell or swap the assets for other cryptocurrencies or stablecoins. Such events often involve an en masse panic triggering a sell-off in the affected assets.

Macroeconomic events like the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates influence risk assets like Bitcoin, mainly through the direct impact they have on the US Dollar. An increase in interest rate typically negatively influences Bitcoin and altcoin prices, and vice versa. If the US Dollar index declines, risk assets and associated leverage for trading gets cheaper, in turn driving crypto prices higher.

Halvings are typically considered bullish events as they slash the block reward in half for miners, constricting the supply of the asset. At consistent demand if the supply reduces, the asset’s price climbs. This has been observed in Bitcoin and Litecoin.

Technical analysis: Danger zone officially over for Bitcoin price

The market remains predominantly bullish with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding above the ‘50’ mean level. Both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) are in positive territory, tilting the odds to the upside.

If the RSI holds above 50, Bitcoin price could continue north. A candlestick close above $70,000 would set the tone for an extension to the $73,777 peak, or in a highly bullish case, offer BTC a chance for a new all-time high.

BTC/USDT 3-day chart

However, with the DXY compare indicator climbing, Bitcoin price could be primed for a correction, seeing as the two trajectories have maintained a countercurrent relationship. This thesis is supported by the MACD, which has crossed below the orange band of the signal line, a crossover interpreted as the beginning of a bearish cycle.

If the $59,530 support breaks, Bitcoin price could roll over to the $50,420 level before a possible inflection. 


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Polygon joins forces with WSPN to expand stablecoin adoption

Polygon joins forces with WSPN to expand stablecoin adoption

WSPN, a stablecoin infrastructure company based in Singapore, has teamed up with Polygon Labs to make its stablecoin, WUSD, more useful in payment and decentralized finance.

More Cryptocurrencies News
Coinbase envisages listing of more meme coins amid regulatory optimism

Coinbase envisages listing of more meme coins amid regulatory optimism

Donald Trump's expected return to the White House creates excitement in the cryptocurrency sector, especially at Coinbase, the largest US-based crypto exchange. The platform is optimistic that the new administration will focus on regulatory clarity, which could lead to more token listings, including popular meme coins.

More Crypto News
Cardano's ADA leaps to 2.5-year high of 90 cents as whale holdings exceed $12B

Cardano's ADA leaps to 2.5-year high of 90 cents as whale holdings exceed $12B

As Bitcoin (BTC) gets closer to the $100,000 mark for the first time — it crossed $99,000 earlier Friday — capital is rotating into alternative cryptocurrencies, creating a buzz in the broader crypto market.

More Bitcoin News
Shiba Inu holders withdraw 1.67 trillion SHIB tokens from exchange

Shiba Inu holders withdraw 1.67 trillion SHIB tokens from exchange

Shiba Inu trades slightly higher, around $0.000024, on Thursday after declining more than 5% the previous week. SHIB’s on-chain metrics project a bullish outlook as holders accumulate recent dips, and dormant wallets are on the move, all pointing to a recovery in the cards.

More Shiba Inu News
Bitcoin: Rally expected to continue as BTC nears $100K

Bitcoin: Rally expected to continue as BTC nears $100K

Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high of $99,419, just inches away from the $100K milestone and has rallied over 9% so far this week. This bullish momentum was supported by the rising Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETF), which accounted for over $2.8 billion inflow until Thursday. BlackRock and Grayscale’s recent launch of the Bitcoin ETF options also fueled the rally this week. 

Read full analysis
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

BTC

ETH

XRP