Bitcoin Price Top Forecast: waiting for another magic trigger

Bitcoin (BTC) showed the strongest weekly growth since the end of December 2018. The digital currency No.1 gained about 10% since the beginning of Monday; however, the best part of the upside movement happened on Monday and Tuesday, while the rest of the week was marked with rangebound directionless trading under the critical resistance level $4,000.
Lack of follow through and inability to pass the above-said barrier came as a disappointment to Bitcoin bulls. Probably, we will have another leg down before another attempt at $4,000.
Amongst alt coins, EOS demonstrated the best results with nearly 40% of growth on a weekly basis. Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash also outperformed the market with 21% and 19% of gains respectively.

What’s going on in the market

This week has been quiet in terms of fundamentals; however, we continued to see a steady flow of positive news. Regulators and major financial institutions from all over the world are diving deeper into the concept of cryptocurrencies and digital assets. Thus the Bank of Japan published a research paper devoted to CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). While the issuance of such coin is not a possibility of the nearest future, `the idea is not dismissed entirely by the Bank. 

Meanwhile, a major Japan-based financial institution Mizuho Financial Group announced the decision to launch JPY-based stable coin. It will be used by Mizuho’s partnership network of sixty financial institutions, which means it has a chance to gain massive support. 

Also, Bahrain seeks to issue a comprehensive regulation for cryptocurrency and blockchain industry with the aim to lure capital inflows and secure a position of a major financial hub in the Middle East. The government has launched a test period to access regulatory needs.

Lithuania seemed to clarify its position on cryptocurrencies, specifically, in terms of creating investment funds for digital assets and using them as a means of payment.

Elsewhere, MyEtherWallet introduces "Exit to Fiat” functionality to allow users to withdraw their coins to fiat without verification procedures. The solution is implemented in partnership with a Swiss company Bity.

Bitcoin technical analysis: at the turning point

From the longer-term perspective, BTC/USD is well supported by weekly SMA ($3,361). This critical barrier separates a downside movement within a range from a continuation of a bearish trend. If it is broken, the sell-off may gather pace with the next aim at psychological $3,000.

In the short-term, we have strong support on approach to $3,900 level with a host of SMAs, midline of Bollinger Band on 1hour and 4hour charts, and 61.8% Fibo retracement daily. Once below, then the downside momentum will gain traction and take the price towards $3,630-$3,600 (DMA50, SMA100 4hour, 61.8% Fibo retracement weekly and 38.2% fibs retracement monthly).

On the upside, $4,000 is all we need at the moment. This resistance is strengthened by a confluence of 23.6% Fibo retracement daily and an upper boundary of Bollinger Band on 1hour and 1day charts. A sustainable move higher will open up the way towards the highest level of the previous month ($4,110) and to the midline of Bollinger Band on a weekly chart. 

Basically, there is little in terms of resistance levels above the current price, which means that the path to the North is practically clear. And still, we need a good impulse to set the ball rolling.

The Forecast Poll of experts shows that the market is optimistic about BTC recovery. While the short-term and medium forecasts are mostly bullish, the long-term trend remains bearish. Estimates have moved upwards in the past week.

 

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