Bitcoin Price Top Forecast: In the middle of nowhere

Despite rangebound trading into the end of the week, the cryptocurrency market is still deep in green on a week-over-week basis. The total value of all digital assets in circulation has settled above $121B from $114B registered a week ago. 

Notably, Bitcoin (BTC) fell behind with just a little one 3.5% of weekly growth, while some altcoins, including Litecoin, EOS and Binance Coin registered double-digit growth. TRON (TRX) is an outsider this week with over 7% of losses.

What’s going on in the market

A host of positive fundamental news proved that the long-awaited institutional adoption has been gaining traction. Namely, JP Morgan launched its own cryptocurrency turning from the most vocal critic to a sudden adopter. While the coin will be used for internal transactions, it may give a strong boost to the technology adoption within the traditional financial sector.
It is worth mentioning that the industry is divided on the outcomes of this development, as some experts believe, that JP Morgan’s coin kills the idea behind blockchain. 

Also, Morgan Creek Digital raised investments from two US public pension funds, which is a signature development that paves the way for extensive usage of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies.

Notably, Grayscale Investments also reported on a record amount of investments received in 2018 with the majority of funds coming from institutional investors.
Basically, the year-long bear trend weeded out speculators and week hands from the market, making it less volatile and more attractive for institutional investors. As Mike Novogratz, founder, and chief executive officer at Galaxy Digital, recently noted, we are still at the bottom of the mountain and have a long way to go. This time the market will move higher in a slow and stable way.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis - hard to decide

From the longer-term perspective, BTC/USD has been utterly listless for the best part of the year. The price has been in a slow by steady decline since The beginning of the year. While the bears failed to push the price below $3,300 handle and retest the lowest level of 2018, however, inability to settle above $3,600is an ominous sign. It means that the upside movement cannot gain momentum. 

Meanwhile, we still need to see a sustainable move above psychological $4,000 to claim the mid-term reversal. Considering that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stays flat in the neutral territory, BTC/USD is likely to remain rangebound for the time being. Though, once the ball starts rolling (in either direction), it may become really wild.

The first critical hurdle on the way to the North is created by DMA50 ad $3,625. Once it is out of the way, the recovery may gain traction towards February high of $3,707. This is also an important line to watch, which is followed by the upper boundary of the descending trend line from December 24 high at $4,232. 

On the downside, $3,300 level remains the key for the bears. It separates us from $3,210 and the cycle low of $3,127. This area is too strong to be cleared from the first try, but once it is out of the way, $3,000 will come into view very quickly.

The Forecast Poll of experts shows that the market is skeptical about BTC recovery. While the short-term and long-term forecasts are bearish, the medium trend remains neutral. Forecasts have deteriorated in the past week.