- On-chain data suggests that miners' selling activity is decreasing, indicating a bullish move ahead.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $1.047 billion in inflows last week.
- Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap is increasing, suggesting that whales are intensifying their accumulation.
Bitcoin (BTC) breached above the descending trendline on Sunday and trades 3.5% up at $62,924 at the time of writing on Monday. On-chain data indicates a decrease in miners' selling activity, complemented by US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $1.047 billion in inflows last week. Additionally, the expanding Coinbase Premium Gap suggests a bullish momentum that is anticipated shortly.
Daily digest market movers: Bitcoin price rallies as Trump assassination attempt fails
- According to CryptoQuant data, the Miners' Position Index (MPI) measures the total miner outflow (USD) ratio to its one-year moving average. This metric evaluates the relationship between the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) mined in the past year and its corresponding moving average. A high MPI indicates increased coin outflows, potentially signaling selling pressure on the token, whereas a low MPI suggests reduced outflows, indicating less sell pressure.
- Currently, BTC's MPI stands at -1.3, indicating a low value where miners send fewer coins than usual. This suggests reduced sell pressure and hints at a bullish trend for BTC in the days ahead.
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Bitcoin Miners' Position Index (MPI) chart
- According to CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap represents the difference between the price of Coinbase Pro (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair). This premium is an indicator of whale accumulation.
- Recent trends, as shown in the graph below, indicate an increasing gap, suggesting whales are intensifying their accumulation efforts by consistently purchasing at a higher premium. This trend also reflects growing investor interest and activity on Coinbase.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap chart
- According to Sentiments data on Bitcoin, the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump on Saturday near Butler, Pennsylvania, prompted an immediate reaction in the crypto markets, with BTC rallying to $60,000, marking a 10-day high since July 4.
- The seriousness of such an event involving a prominent political figure, combined with varying political stances within the crypto community, has shown a bullish sentiment towards the 2024 US presidential candidate. As the election approaches this fall, there has been a generally positive response from the crypto community towards pro-Trump news, bolstered by recent pro-crypto remarks. Surviving an assassination attempt is perceived as positive news for Trump, further fueling bullish sentiment in the market.
- Irrespective of personal political views, these market reactions are expected to persist with any significant US political developments throughout 2024, particularly within the inherently speculative cryptocurrency sector.
Bitcoin Social Volume and Dominance chart
- Data from CoinGlass indicates that future Open Interest (OI) for BTC on exchanges is rising. OI reflects the total number of outstanding derivative contracts yet to be settled, serving as a gauge for inflows and outflows of money into contracts.
- Increasing OI suggests a bullish trend, signaling fresh capital entering the market and heightened buying activity. Conversely, a decrease in OI typically indicates market liquidation, with more investors exiting and potentially marking the end of the current price trend.
- As depicted in the graph below, BTC's OI surged from $26.97 billion on July 9 to $31.87 billion on July 15, reaching its highest level since July 4. This uptick indicates an influx of new capital and increased buying activity within the market.
Bitcoin Open Interest chart
- Additionally, Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow (USD) data shows that the Spot ETF saw an inflow of $1.04 billion last week, signaling growing investor confidence and potentially foreshadowing a short-term uptick in Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow (USD) chart
Technical analysis: BTC breaks above the descending trendline
Bitcoin price broke above the descending trendline on Sunday, trading 3.5% up at $62,924 on Monday. The trendline is formed by connecting multiple swing high levels from early June to mid-July.
If the trendline holds as pullback support at around the $58,357 level, which coincides with the weekly support, BTC could rally 9% from that level, targeting its daily resistance of $63,956.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is trading above the neutral level of 50, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is on its way to doing the same. If bulls are indeed making a comeback, then both momentum indicators must maintain their positions above their respective mean levels. Such a development would add a tailwind to the recovery rally.
If the bulls are aggressive, the overall crypto market outlook is positive, and BTC closes above $63,956, it could extend an additional rise of 5% to retest its weekly resistance of $67,209.
BTC/USDT daily chart
Conversely, if BTC closes below $56,405 and forms a lower low in the daily timeframe, it may signal persistent bearish sentiment. This scenario could trigger a 7.5% decline in Bitcoin's price, targeting a revisit of its daily support at $52,266.
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
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