Bitcoin price reaction to likely Spot ETF approval could disappoint BTC holders

Bitcoin Spot ETF’s likely approval by the SEC could promote inflow of over $100 million to the securities product in the short term.
Director of Digital Assets Strategy at VanEck says people tend to overestimate the initial impact of Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart believes traders focused on a massive short-term impact could suffer a let down.

Bitcoin Spot ETF decision by the US financial regulator could come as soon as Tuesday this week, according to a recent Reuters report. Bloomberg’s ETF analyst James Seyffart commented on what to expect in the event of an approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

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Bitcoin Spot ETF could soon receive SEC greenlight, could disappoint in short term

Bitcoin Spot ETF’s likely approval by the US SEC could disappoint market participants that are focused on the short-term impact of the event. VanEck Director of Digital Assets Strategy says that in his view people overestimate the initial impact of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Gabor Gurbacs expects a few $100 million inflows to the securities product and a significant long-term impact of Spot Bitcoin ETF launch.

In my view, people tend to overestimate the initial impact of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. I think maybe a few $100mm flows (mostly recycled) money.

Long term, people tend to underestimate the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs. If history is any guide, gold is worth studying as a parallel. https://t.co/6vvkA9aC09
— Gabor Gurbacs (@gaborgurbacs) December 31, 2023

James Seyffart agrees with Gurbacs view on the short-term impact of a Spot Bitcoin ETF approval, in his recent tweet:

Mostly in agreement with Gabor on this. Consensus seems to be (anecdotally) that People are focused on a massive short term impact that I think could be a bit of a let down while at same time not fully appreciating the potential longer term impacts. https://t.co/z69Wbffcu9
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) December 31, 2023

BTC price sustains above $42,000 in 2024

Bitcoin price is $42,376 on Binance, at the time of writing. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization sustained above $42,000 in 2024, despite the bearish signals in on-chain metrics like the Network Realized Profit/Loss and rising BTC supply on exchanges, as seen on Santiment.

There are large spikes in the Network Realized Profit/Loss chart that represent profit-taking by BTC traders between October and December 31.

Network Realized Profit/Loss. Source: Santiment

Bitcoin supply on exchanges climbed between December 27 and 31, as seen in the chart below. Rising BTC reserves in exchange wallets typically increase selling pressure on the asset. Despite the rising selling pressure, Bitcoin held steady above $42,000 on January 1.

Supply on exchanges and price. Source: Santiment

Bitcoin yielded nearly 10% monthly gains for holders, as anticipation of the Spot BTC ETF approval rises closer to the January 10 deadline.

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