Bitcoin price prediction: BTC/USD not ready to go below $3,800   - Confluence Detector

• BTC/USD recovered strongly from $3,800 support.
• A move back above $3,900 is needed to mitigate the selling pressure.

BTC/USD jumped from the intraday low of $3,796 to $3,846 by the time of writing. Apparently, the market is not ready to push the price below the critical barrier, which means that we are in for consolidation period. Only a sustainable move either above $3,900 or below $3,800 will put an end to the tiresome rangebound trading and create a strong directional movement.

BTC/USD the daily confluence detector

The resistance zone spreads from the current price to $3,900. It is packed with strong technical levels, which means the bulls will have a hard time regaining ground. The confluence of technical indicators include: 

• All levels of 1-hour Bollinger Band, the lower boundary of 4-hour Bollinger Band and the Midline of a Bollinger Band on a daily chart.
• A series of significant SMA levels including SMA100 and SMA50 (4-hour), SMA200 (1-hour)
• Fibo retracement levels (38.2% monthly, weekly and daily, 23.6% daily)

Once this area is cleared, BTC/USD may proceed towards the next bullish aim at $4,000. This psychological level is strengthened by Fibo 23.6% monthly and a Pivot Point 1-day Resistance 3.

The ultimate near-term resistance is created by $4,150-$4,200 area, which encompasses the highest level of the previous month and a Pivot Point weekly Resistance 3.

Meanwhile, there are few important barriers below the current price. The first cluster is noted on approach to $3,755 (SMA200 h-hour, Fibo retracement 61.8% weekly and a Pivot Point daily Support 2.

Once below, the sell-off may gain traction with the next focus on $3,670-$3,650. This barrier is created by DMA50, 61.8% Fibo retracement daily, the lower boundary of a daily Bollinger Band.

BTC/USD, 1D

 

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