|

Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC consolidates while it eyes $11,000, according to on-chain metrics

  • Bitcoin price holds firmly in a narrow range with support at $10,200 and resistance at $10,400.
  • Bitcoin price is in consolidation, but IntoTheBlock on-chain data shows that recovery above $11,000 is in the offing.

The flagship cryptocurrency traded above $10,000 the weekend over, but again, not much action was encountered to the upside. Support at $10,000 remained intact, and so did the resistance at $10,400. At the moment, Bitcoin is trading at $10,233 after losing a subtle 0.21% of its value on the day. There have been many instances when BTC has traded above $10,300. However, it failed to test the hurdle at $10,400, just like the intraday high at $10,312 (Coinbase) traded during the Asian session.

The pioneer digital asset suffered a massive blow to the uptrend it had sustained for more than a month towards the end of last week. Before the breakdown, Bitcoin was pivotal between the broken support at $11,100 and the critical $12,000. Gains above $12,000 became unstainable, exhausting the buyers hence the freefall to levels slightly under $10,000.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin price is doddering below a long term ascending trendline. Intriguingly, BTC has encountered immense support at $10,000. The support seems to have helped BTC avert the bearish call (close the CME BTC futures gap to $9,600) discussed on Friday.

As traders and investors scratch their heads in a bid to identify the direction Bitcoin would take, it is essential to realize that technical indicator such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) point towards sustained consolidation before a breakout. The RSI is an index that illustrates how strong a particular trend is. In this case, the sideways movement at 37.50 hints that BTC/USD will remain range-bound between short term support at $10,200 and the resistance at $10,400, at least for the near term.

BTC/USD daily chart

BTC/USD price chart

Meanwhile, on-chain data provided by IntoTheBlock, particularly the “Out of the Money” model, confirms that Bitcoin is unlikely to drop further. Instead, the largest cryptocurrency is bound to resume the rally to levels above $11,000. In other words, the model shows that about 992,000 addresses purchased Bitcoin at a minimum price of $10,381 and a maximum price of $11,008. On average, these addresses bought BTC at $10,698. With Bitcoin trading at $10,251, this means that these addresses are likely to hold onto the crypto in anticipation that the price will increase so that they can sell higher.

In/Out of money chart

IN/OUT of Money By IntoTheBlock Model

On the downside, Bitcoin has been accorded immense support by the 1.34 million addresses that bought the token at an average price of $10,220. It means that these addresses are still in the money, but the margin is not big enough to call for a massive selloff. Therefore, According to these metrics, the digital gold path of least resistance seems to be upwards.

Besides, the price is generally trading between the moving average support and resistance. The 50-day SMA will limit recovery at $11,166 while the 200-day SMA is in line to provide support marginally above $9,000. Similarly, the gap made by the 50 SMA above the longer-term 200 SMA hints that bulls have not lost it all and still have some influence over the price, probably enough to send BTC above the resistance at $10,400.

Author

John Isige

John Isige

FXStreet

John Isige is a seasoned cryptocurrency journalist and markets analyst committed to delivering high-quality, actionable insights tailored to traders, investors, and crypto enthusiasts. He enjoys deep dives into emerging Web3 tren

More from John Isige
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).

Sberbank issues Russia's first corporate loan backed by Bitcoin

Russia's largest bank Sberbank launched the country's first Bitcoin-backed corporate loan to miner Intelion Data. The pilot deal uses cryptocurrency as collateral through Sberbank's proprietary Rutoken custody solution.

Bitcoin recovers to $87,000 as retail optimism offsets steady ETF outflows

Bitcoin (BTC) trades above $88,000 at press time on Tuesday, following a rejection at $90,000 the previous day. Institutional support remains mixed amid steady outflow from US spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Strategy Inc.’s acquisition of 1,229 BTC last week.

Traders split over whether lighter’s LIT clears $3 billion FDV after launch

Lighter’s LIT token has not yet begun open trading, but the market has already drawn a sharp line around its valuation after Tuesday's airdrop.

Orange Juice Newsletter – Smart insights by real people. Every day.

A free newsletter highlighting key market trends to help traders stay a step ahead. Daily insights on the most relevant trading topics, compiled by our experts in an easy-to-read format so you never miss an important move.

Bitcoin: Fed delivers, yet fails to impress BTC traders

Bitcoin (BTC) continues de trade within the recent consolidation phase, hovering around $92,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious December rate cut and its implications for risk assets.