- Bitcoin price volume profile has sneaky bearish elements.
- BTC price has breached a parallel trend channel with proper RSI resistance.
- Invalidation of the bearish model will be a close above $49,241.
Bitcoin price has been coiling into a Wave 4 triangle pattern all year. There is a chance the D wave of the triangle is now complete.
Bitcoin price has smart money influences hidden in the volume
Bitcoin price has shown the first signs of concern for the 20% bull rally it accomplished in March. The overall macro thesis for BTC is a coiling Wave 4 triangle. Last month's Bitcoin price provided multiple confluences insinuating an extended price target in the 51,000 range for the prospective D wave of the coiling triangle. Now it seems there is a possibility the target may be getting front-run by smart money influences.
BTC price volume profile shows sneaky evidence of an "exchange of hands" for the current uptrend. The largest bullish engulfing candle with a high of $46,750 within the uptrend has a low volume compared to previous candles and the subsequent consolidation candlesticks. The Relative Strength Index also found resistance at the 60 levels, while Tuesday's price of $45,600 hovers below a breached daily trend channel.
When put all together, Bitcoin price could begin falling back towards the lows at $38,000 and even $34,000 to print the final E wave of the Wave 4 triangle.
BTC/USD 2-Day Chart
An invalidation for the bearish model can only occur if the Bitcoin price can establish a settling price above $49,241. If this were to occur, targets at $51,000 and $52,000 would be back on the table, resulting in a 15% rise from the current Bitcoin price.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC nosedives below $95,000 as spot ETFs record highest daily outflow since launch
Bitcoin price continues to edge down, trading below $95,000 on Friday after declining more than 9% this week. Bitcoin US spot ETFs recorded the highest single-day outflow on Thursday since their launch in January.
Bitcoin crashes to $96,000, altcoins bleed: Top trades for sidelined buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $100,000 milestone and touched the $96,000 level briefly on Friday, a sharp decline that has also hit hard prices of other altcoins and particularly meme coins.
Solana Price Forecast: SOL’s technical outlook and on-chain metrics hint at a double-digit correction
Solana (SOL) price trades in red below $194 on Friday after declining more than 13% this week. The recent downturn has led to $38 million in total liquidations, with over $33 million coming from long positions.
SEC approves Hashdex and Franklin Templeton's combined Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto index ETFs
The SEC approved Hashdex's proposal for a crypto index ETF. The ETF currently features Bitcoin and Ethereum, with possible additions in the future. The agency also approved Franklin Templeton's amendment to its Cboe BZX for a crypto index ETF.
Bitcoin: 2025 outlook brightens on expectations of US pro-crypto policy
Bitcoin (BTC) price has surged more than 140% in 2024, reaching the $100K milestone in early December. The rally was driven by the launch of Bitcoin Spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in January and the reduced supply following the fourth halving event in April.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.