- Popular strategy analyst Benjamin Cowen has forecasted a bearish month for Bitcoin this September.
- In his opinion, the month has proven gloomy for BTC historically, characterized by negative averages incomparable to any other month.
- With this, Cowen predicts a 10% slump to test the $23,000 psychological level.
- Regarding altcoins, he anticipates a recovery inspired by a confluence of macro tailwinds to steer the market into 2024.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has historically hurt traders that take long positions in September, with strategy analyst Benjamin Cowen predicting double-digit losses this month, potentially testing levels last seen in February.
Also Read: Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC correlation to DJIA hits 2021 peak levels amid ETF hype.
Bitcoin could fall 10% in September
Bitcoin (BTC) price could fall at least 10% in September, according to Cowen, a strategy analyst who explored the bearish outlook displayed by BTC historically during this month. With the flagship crypto back in the $25,000 range after the US Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) delayed decisions on spot BTC Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) filing, the analyst says:
September just tends to not be a great month for crypto. Bitcoin – you can see – it averages negative in September, by a long shot, much worse than any other month.
The analyst retraced the “seasonality of Bitcoin,” highlighting that momentum indicators add credence to his analysis. In his opinion, the fact that BTC closed the month of August below the $27,000 psychological level increased the odds for a deep correction to $23,000 in September.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
What about altcoins?
Regarding altcoins, the analyst predicts this class of assets “coming back to life,” possibly driven by a confluence of macro factors that would bode well for the altcoin category in 2024.
Cowen’s thesis for altcoins in 2024 sprouts from the Bitcoin halving, expected in early 2024. The halving season is characterized by volatility, which could go higher considering the US Elections, defined by massive market uncertainty. For one, incumbents looking to stay in power are likely to inject political pressure as a campaign strategy to entice voters with less stringent monetary policies, hence volatility.
The analyst also bases his postulate on the ongoing “rate-hikes,” with the Federal Reserve showing more aggression this cycle than ever.
…at this rate, we are likely to start seeing the labor market show noticeable effects from all these interest rate hikes by the end of this year, early next year.
A weakening labor market coupled with easing inflation as chatter about a recession lingers will likely influence the Fed to pause the rate hikes to help companies stay afloat. This could pave the way for a “quantitative easing return” in the market, possibly allowing altcoins to thrive.
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
What are altcoins?
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
What are stablecoins?
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
What is Bitcoin Dominance?
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Is Altcoin Season here as Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high?
Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high of $98,384 on Thursday, with altcoins following the suit. Reports highlight that the recent surge in altcoins was fueled by the victory of crypto-friendly candidate Donal Trump in the US presidential election.
Shanghai court confirms legal recognition of crypto ownership
A Shanghai court has confirmed that owning digital assets, including Bitcoin, is legal under Chinese law. Judge Sun Jie of the Shanghai Songjiang People’s Court shared this opinion through the WeChat account of the Shanghai High People’s Court.
BTC hits an all-time high above $97,850, inches away from the $100K mark
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $97,852 on Thursday, and the technical outlook suggests a possible continuation of the rally to $100,000. BTC futures have surged past the $100,000 price mark on Deribit, and Lookonchain data shows whales are accumulating.
Shiba Inu holders withdraw 1.67 trillion SHIB tokens from exchange
Shiba Inu trades slightly higher, around $0.000024, on Thursday after declining more than 5% the previous week. SHIB’s on-chain metrics project a bullish outlook as holders accumulate recent dips, and dormant wallets are on the move, all pointing to a recovery in the cards.
Bitcoin: New high of $100K or correction to $78K?
Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $93,265 in the first half of the week, followed by a slight decline in the latter half. Reports highlight that Bitcoin’s current level is still not overvalued and could target levels above $100,000 in the coming weeks.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.