Bitcoin price consolidation could precipitate a fall as US markets remember President Washington

• Bitcoin price has consolidated below the $52,768 roadblock for almost a week amid buyer momentum exhaustion.
• BTC could drop 10% to the most critical Fibonacci level, 61.8% at $47,445, a formidable blockade between January 8 -12.
• Invalidation of the bearish thesis will occur if the price records a new local top above the $52,816 range high.

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to trade horizontally, stepping into  the week when the US market is in holiday spirits, commemorating some of the country's founding fathers. 

Also Read: Bitcoin price bullish outlook inspires IntoTheBlock’s 85% forecast of BTC at a new ATH by August

Bitcoin stalls as US markets remember President Washington

Presidents’ Day, which celebrates first President George Washington’s birthday, gives many Americans the day off on February 19. He is remarked upon as the first leader of a new republic — not a tyrant.

The celebration has become a consumerism bonanza with certain states making it a public holiday. The actual birthday is on February 22, but Congress voted to move the holiday to Monday. In doing so, lawmakers noted clear benefits to the economy, including enhanced retail sales and travel on three-day weekends.

Bitcoin price outlook amid Presidents’ Day lull

After a week of consolidation, Bitcoin price is likely to drop, as markets tend not to wait so long. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 78 also shows BTC is already overbought. This status often precipitates a pullback.

In addition, Bitcoin price’s current Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicates a possible correction. This is because it has increased above 1 as a 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). For the layperson, this ratio suggests that BTC holders who are sitting on unrealized profits at current Bitcoin prices may soon cash in on their gains.

With the possibility of a correction as suggested by the RSI and the SOPR indicators, investors should not succumb to the fear of missing out (FOMO) after a striking surge in Bitcoin price. Instead, they should consider waiting for the SOPR rate to fall below 1 before they can enter the market.

If sellers pull the trigger, Bitcoin price could make a 5% fall to the 78.6% Fibonacci level, or in a dire case, retrace the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $47,445, which barred BTC upside potential between January 8 and 12.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also showing fading histogram bars, suggesting a waning bullish cycle.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

On the other hand, if the bulls fasten their grip on BTC, Bitcoin price could extend north, shattering the $52,768 roadblock to record a new local top. A higher high above this level would invalidate the bearish thesis, bringing $55,000 into focus. In a highly bullish case, the gains could extrapolate to the $60,000 psychological level, 15% above current levels.

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