• Bitcoin price is hovering at the $28,800 mark after noting a 5% crash in the last 24 hours.
  • While the bearish fractal suggests a 22% crash, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio shows that the market is at a very neutral level.
  • Whales holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have accumulated nearly half a billion worth of Bitcoin which could offset any potential bearishness.

Bitcoin price corrected for the first time after a little over a month and triggered the discourse of a “bear market”. Such is the fragility of the crypto market that even the slightest drops induce panic in investors, even when they are only describing a pullback.

Bitcoin price repeats history, but not really

Bitcoin price slipped by 5.39% over the previous 24 hours to trade at $28,786, reminiscing a bearish fractal – a type of repeating market pattern – that was formed back on April 14, 2021. Surprisingly, the candlestick pattern noted on April 14 this year is akin to the one from two years ago.

Bitcoin bearish fractal from April 2021

Bitcoin bearish fractal from April 2021

A bearish fractal usually occurs when a high point is followed and preceded by lower highs which lead to further price falls. In the case of 2021, the subsequent decline in price led to a 22.5% crash that pulled BTC back below $50,000. If the same pattern plays out this time, Bitcoin price could see a drop to $23,650.

BTC/USD 1-day chart

BTC/USD 1-day chart

However, this would not necessarily count as a bearish move, and the chances of an all-out crash are minimal. Bitcoin price is only correcting due to the market overheating caused by excessive bullishness over the past month, not because of a more fundamental reason. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossing the 70.0 mark is evidence of the same, which at the time of writing has returned to the neutral line at 50.0.

Further evidence is in the fact that volatility is currently at a two-month low which indicates that no major swings in price can take place. All the panic in the market is due to Bitcoin losing the psychological support of $30,000.

Bitcoin volatility

Bitcoin volatility

Moreover, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio (NUPL) shows that the crypto market is at a very neutral level. Neither being heavily discounted nor being heavily overvalued suggests that Bitcoin price is safe from any sudden crashes.

Bitcoin NUPL ratio

Bitcoin NUPL ratio

Bitcoin whales are supplementing the neutral conditions by accumulating over the last few days. Cohorts holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have amassed 20,000 BTC worth $576 million in over four days to further offset any potential bearishness that may arise if the bearish fractal plays out.

Bitcoin whale accumulation

Bitcoin whale accumulation

Thus, investors do not need to worry about a crash to $23,650 as the chances of that happening are pretty slim for the moment.


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

US presidential election outcome could shape the future of crypto

US presidential election outcome could shape the future of crypto

US citizens will go to the polls to elect a new president on November 5, and their choice could be key for the future of the crypto industry and thus the price outlook for Bitcoin (BTC).

More Cryptocurrencies News
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC recovers as Donald Trump takes lead on polls

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC recovers as Donald Trump takes lead on polls

Bitcoin (BTC) slightly recovered to around $68,800 on Tuesday, following a shift in the United States presidential race that saw former President Donald Trump regain the lead, after US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced an outflow of over $540 million on Monday.

More Bitcoin News
Crypto markets brace for volatility in tight race between Trump and Harris

Crypto markets brace for volatility in tight race between Trump and Harris

The US presidential election is one of the most significant events in the world. Due to the influence of the country’s political decisions, policies, and economic approaches, it can significantly impact crypto and global markets. 

More Cryptocurrencies News
Trump-inspired memecoin MAGA shows bullish on-chain metrics ahead of US elections

Trump-inspired memecoin MAGA shows bullish on-chain metrics ahead of US elections

MAGA (TRUMP) trades slightly down to around $3.4 on Tuesday after rallying more than 20% since Sunday. The former President Donald Trump-based memecoin is poised for further gains as daily active addresses and network growth metrics rise, signaling increased network usage and adoption

More Cryptocurrencies News
Bitcoin: New all-time high at $78,900 looks feasible

Bitcoin: New all-time high at $78,900 looks feasible

Bitcoin price declines over 2% this week, but the bounce from a key technical level on the weekly chart signals chances of hitting a new all-time high in the short term. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $596 million in inflows until Thursday despite the increased profit-taking activity.

Read full analysis
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

BTC

ETH

XRP