Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC/USD bulls trapped as $6,300 proves a hard nut to crack

BTC/USD recovery above $6,000 has improved the short-term technical picture.
A strong move above $6,300-$6,500 area is needed for the recovery to gain traction.

Bitcoin (BTC) is changing hands at $6,280, having gained nearly 2% on a day-to-day basis. Notably, the first digital asset has recovered from the intraday low registered at $5,854, but the further upside seems to be limited by $6,300 that served as an upside barrier for the best part of the previous week.

Bitcoin's market capitalization has settled at $112.4 billion, which is 65.4% of the total digital assets market. Bitcoin's average daily trading volume is registered at $30.5 billion.

BTC/USD: On-chain statistics

Currently, over 43% of Bitcoin addresses are in the money, according to the statistics provided by Intotheblock. Over 1 million addresses with the aggregate value of 658K BTC have a break-even point in the range from $6,300 to $6,500, which means that this area may serve as a strong barrier for the recovery. The market volatility stays close to the recent high reached at 135.5%, while the number of active addresses retreated to 583K from 893.9K on March 26.

BTC/USD: Technical picture

BTC/USD has printed a Doji candle on a weekly chart, which means that the market is in the state of uncertainty. The recovery may be over for now, at least as long as the price stays below the psychological barrier of $7,000, strengthened by SMA100 weekly. A sustainable move above this line will improve the long-term picture and allow for a sustainable recovery towards $8,000-$8,200. This resistance area is created by a confluence of SMA50, SMA100 and SMA200 on the daily chart.

An upward-looking RSI on the daily chart implies that the recovery may gain traction.

On the downside, The critical support is created by psychological $6,000. If it is broken, the sell-off may be extended towards the recent low of $5,854. This area stopped the downside during early Asian hours on Monday. The next support is created by $5,600 (March 23 low) followed by psychological $5,000.

BTC/USD 1-day chart

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