Bitcoin has chalked up an impressive rally ahead of the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday. Analysts say the virtual event could strengthen cryptocurrency’s bullish trajectory.
Bitcoin was trading at a three-month high of $50,200 at press time, having recorded gains for a fifth consecutive week in the seven days to Aug. 22. That’s the longest weekly winning trend since November, CoinDesk 20 data show.
“After Jackson Hole the dollar could see some depreciation, and with institutions missing out on bitcoin (BTC, +2.61%) in the last two weeks and now slowly coming back to work for September start, this will trigger renewed inflows into the cryptocurrency and also equity,” Laurent Kssis, managing director of exchange-traded products at 21Shares, told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat.
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City every year, hosts prominent central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants. Until a few weeks ago, some observers were suggesting that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell would utilize the event to set the stage for an early scaling back of the central bank’s asset-price inflating stimulus measures.
Those expectations have been watered down in recent days, with the renewed spike in coronavirus cases in the U.S. and other parts of the world, as ForexLive’s Justin Low noted. The Fed may now want to gauge the impact of the virus’s resurgence on the economy before signaling a taper.
That may revive the global macro trade of sell dollars and buy everything denominated in terms of the greenback seen in the second half of 2020.
“We expect the Fed to remain dovish and offer no surprises,” said Matthew Dibb, co-founder and COO at Stack Funds. “If this is the case, we will see continued risk-on across most markets.”
Bitcoin and dollar index weekly charts Source: TradingView
Bitcoin nearly quadrupled to $40,000 in the final three months of 2020 as the dollar nosedived. The cryptocurrency reached a record high of $64,801 in April before taking a beating in May and June.
The recent bounce from July lows below $30,000 looks impressive, considering it has happened alongside an increase in the dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s value against major currencies.
The DXY reached a nine-month high of 93.73 on Friday and was recently at 93.25. The ascent was in part fueled by the minutes of the June Fed meeting confirming that the central bank may begin tapering later this year, as Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, noted in a blog post.
The minutes, therefore, look to have stolen some of Jackson Hole’s thunder. So even a hawkish comment from Powell later this week may not significantly deteriorate the risk sentiment.
Other crypto-specific factors also support a continued rally. “The calmness of the $50,000 break leads me to think it could be sustainable with minor setbacks,” Patrick Heusser, head of trading at Crypto Finance, said.
The market does look calm, with the perpetual funding rate – or the average cost of holding long positions in the derivatives market – still below 0.010%, according to Glassnode. That’s significantly lower than highs above 0.10% observed during the bull frenzy of the first quarter and suggests little or no speculative froth in the market.
“Looking at funding and the options market, this rally still appears to be spot-driven,” Dibb said. “Our expectation is that this break of psychological resistance will likely result in a rotation back to bitcoin in the coming weeks, with the next target of $60,000.”
The cryptocurrency’s rally from July lows has been backed by strong hands, according to data analytics firm IntoTheBlock.
A minor correction, however, cannot be ruled out as short-term technical indicators are pointing to overbought conditions. That may weigh heavily on alternative cryptocurrencies like solana and cardano (ADA, +8.42%) which have outperformed bitcoin in recent days.
“Recently the market has seen modest inflows in bitcoin but rather large exchange-traded product inflows in all other coins especially Solana, Polkadot, Cardano, and of course ether (ETH, +2.95%),” Kssis said. “The performance is attributed to bitcoin’s rise which may see a reset at $50,000 and a short correction before what will be anticipated inflows from institutions back in September.”
All writers’ opinions are their own and do not constitute financial advice in any way whatsoever. Nothing published by CoinDesk constitutes an investment recommendation, nor should any data or Content published by CoinDesk be relied upon for any investment activities. CoinDesk strongly recommends that you perform your own independent research and/or speak with a qualified investment professional before making any financial decisions.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
US presidential election outcome could shape the future of crypto
US citizens will go to the polls to elect a new president on November 5, and their choice could be key for the future of the crypto industry and thus the price outlook for Bitcoin (BTC).
Bitcoin ETFs beat Gold ETFs with 65% gain since launch
Bitcoin ETFs have reshaped the digital asset investment landscape since their approval in January. Their total assets under management climbed over $70 billion during the weekend, placing them ahead of other investment products, including gold.
XRP eyes 10% rally amid relisting across crypto exchanges and growing institutional demand
Ripple's XRP is trading at $0.5050 up slightly by 0.2% in the past 24 hours as it struggles to sustain a move above a key symmetry triangle resistance. Meanwhile, in its recently released Q3 report, Ripple noted the rising listing and relisting of XRP across crypto exchanges and global platforms.
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH struggles below $2,500 amid State of Michigan pension fund investment in ETH ETF
Ethereum is trading near $2,420, down about 1% on Monday, but could bounce off a key descending trendline close to the $2,258 historically high demand zone. Meanwhile, the State of Michigan pension fund revealed an investment of $11 million in ETH exchange-traded funds.
Bitcoin: New all-time high at $78,900 looks feasible
Bitcoin price declines over 2% this week, but the bounce from a key technical level on the weekly chart signals chances of hitting a new all-time high in the short term. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $596 million in inflows until Thursday despite the increased profit-taking activity.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.