Bitcoin hit the 200 day moving average resistance at 40500/800

Bitcoin topped exactly at 200 day moving average at 40500/800 keeping the outlook negative over the weekend. Holding below 38000 adds pressure for today.

Ripple XRP shorts at 38.2% Fibonacci & short term moving average resistance at 1.0515/1.0545 work this week as we look for another test of 0.9000/0.8970.

Ethereum shorts at strong resistance at 2750/2800are working as we look for a retest of first support at 2400/2350.

Daily analysis

Bitcoin hit the 200 day moving average resistance at 40500/800 exactly as predicted & topped exactly here. Shorts need stops above 41000. A break higher is a buy signal targeting the head & shoulders neckline at 43600/43800. Shorts need stops above 44000.

Shorts at the 200 day moving average resistance at 40500/800 target 38800/700, perhaps as far as minor support at 37100/37000 (our target for today). Further losses risk a slide to 35500 & a retest of strong support at 31100/30000, just above my ultimate target for the head & shoulders sell signal at 27500/27000.

Brave bulls can try longs again at 31100/30000 but be aware that my ultimate target for the crash was 27500/27000. So save some funds to add to longs here. However longs need stops below 25500. A break lower signals significant further losses are likely.

Ripple shorts at strong resistance at 1.0515/1.0545 re-target first support at 0.9000/0.8980, perhaps as far as 0.8050/30. Again expect very important 6 month trend line & 200 day moving average support at 0.7040-0.6558 to hold the downside. Brave bulls or longer term investors can try longs with stops below 0.6400. If prices hold below here then all is lost for the bulls & a further significant correction to the downside looks likely. Initially we can target 0.5100 – 0.4800.

Important 38.2% Fibonacci & short term moving average resistance at 1.0515/1.0545. Shorts need stops above 1.1100. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 1.1700/1.1800, perhaps as far as 1.3000/1.3500.

Ethereum shorts at strong resistance at 2750/2800 need stops above 2900. A break higher is a buy signal targeting 3050/3100, perhaps as far as strong resistance at 3300/3400. Shorts need stops above 3500.

Shorts at 2750/2800 target minor support again at 2400/2350. A break lower targets 2140/30 before a retest of important 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1728. Brave bulls can try longs here again & can also average down, buying a little more at the 200 day moving average at 1600. It is entirely possible that this will be the low for the crash. Longs MUST stop below 1500. A break lower to kills the recovery hopes & risks a slide to to 1300/1250. Although the decline may pause here I do not see this as a strong support level & longs would be extremely risky.

Chart

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