Jonathan Morgan
Independent Analyst
- Bitcoin price trades higher, with a greater than +10% gain from the Monday lows.
- Intense Fibonacci and Ichimoku resistance levels could stall further upside momentum.
- A bull trap could generate a BTC continuation move south.
Since Monday, Bitcoin price has made some impressive moves, driving higher from the Monday lows of $43,444 to the current weekly high at $46,134. Bulls have pushed Bitcoin price higher with little resistance or retracement. However, strong resistance levels could trigger an end to the current bullish momentum.
Bitcoin price charges higher, key resistance levels ahead could trap bulls
Bitcoin price has maintained a steady and unchecked drive higher since hitting the $43,000 value area on Monday. Very little, if any, selling pressure has occurred over the past three trading days. However, some selling pressure should be expected near the $48,000 value area.
The daily Kijun-sen and Tenkan-Sen share the $48,000 level with the powerful 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The combination of these Ichimoku and Fibonacci levels creates a natural stopping point for Bitcoin price. The Ichimoku indicator that bulls will need to watch for is the closing position of the Lagging Span. If bulls can close Bitcoin above $49,500, then Bitcoin will be in an undeniable bullish phase, one that will likely see it return to its prior all-time highs.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
On the flip side, bears will need to see how Bitcoin price reacts to the near-term resistance. If they can push Bitcoin price lower and close anywhere below $46,700, then a $40,000 value area test is highly likely. The Relative Strength Index shows a very neutral condition and the Optex Bands indicate neutral to slightly extended given the slope of its line.
The Composite Index will likely be the triggering event for any bullish expansion. Bulls and bears will want to observe what happens when the Composite Index crosses its fast and slow-moving averages. A slope that is shallow signals weakness. It's a tricky area for both sides of the market, so vigilance is vital.
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