Bitcoin: Bounce, rally yet to start

Market picture

Crypto market capitalisation was up 1.6% over 24 hours to $1.066 trillion, with impressive gains on Wednesday afternoon. Following the strong rally in US tech stocks, buyers are gently picking up cryptocurrencies after the recent sell-off.

Bitcoin touched a low for the week of $25.33K - above the local June lows of $24.7K, fuelling hopes that the uptrend is still in play. Meanwhile, BTCUSD remains below its 200-week average and the lower boundary of its former bull corridor.

Technically, Bitcoin is dominated by downside risks, with the potential to fall to $23.8K, where the 50-week moving average lies. However, we see Wednesday's rebound as short-term profit-taking on short positions amid the most oversold RSI conditions since June 2022.

News background

Bitcoin's mining difficulty rose 6.17% to an all-time high of 55.6T. According to Glassnode, the network’s 7-day moving average hash rate peaked at 414 EH/s.

Twitter analyst Bluntz, who predicted a bear trend for Bitcoin in 2018, expects the crypto market's total capitalisation to fall by 15% before a new rally begins. He believes this will be the last good opportunity to buy Bitcoin for the next few years.

According to the Financial Times, inflows into European crypto funds increased significantly after BlackRock launched a spot bitcoin ETF. Investments increased by €150 million in June alone.

Cryptocurrencies increase financial risks in emerging markets and are not attractive, says a new report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). This will become even more true as crypto assets become more widespread and their links to the traditional financial system strengthen.