Bitcoin blunders or breakthrough? – Wave-C’s final leg unfolding

In our last update as of 7th Feb 2025, Bitcoin struggled to hold 100K, staying in the 94K–100K range for most of February 2025 as shown in the yellow box—except for a sharp breakdown in the final week. On February 21, 2025, our Wave 2 completed within a wedge formation, setting the stage for a furious Wave 3 decline. Bitcoin tumbled to a 78K low, marking Wave 3 of an ending diagonal (wedge) in Wave-C of the irregular structure that began from the 108,245 high on December 17, 2024.

11th March 2025 - Proposed Bitcoin wave path 

Understanding the irregular structure: What’s next?

1. Wave-B’s fake breakout (109K – January 20, 2025)
   • Bitcoin trapped bulls with a new high at 109K, slightly exceeding the structure’s starting point.
   • Post 109K, Wave-C turned messy, unfolding in choppy Wave 1 moves before the final wedge formation.
2. Wave-3’s Sharp Drop (February 21, 2025, – 78K Low)
   • Bitcoin slipped furiously in Wave-3 of the wedge during the last week of February 2025.
   • Now, with March nearing its end, a similar market behavior may unfold, leading to the final Wave-5 decline.

18th March 2025  Bitcoin Wave Path - (Wave - d) is about to complete in wave 4 within wedge-C unfolding 
 

Wave-5 breakdown: Will Bitcoin slip to 75K or 70K?

• Wave-C is an ending diagonal (Wedge Formation)
  • We previously labeled this as a WXY, but it's now clear the structure follows an A-B-C formation with a 3-3-5 pattern.
  • Wave-5, the last leg of the wedge, is about to unfold.
• Potential Drop to 75K–70K Before a Bullish Reversal
  • Wave-3 in February 2025 saw aggressive selling.
  • If Wave-5 follows similar intensity, Bitcoin could slip further toward the 75K–70K zone, where bulls might return with strong support.

19th March 2025 - Bitcoin Wave Path - (Wave-e) nearing to complete or soon to complete at 84871 Highs 

Trading strategy & key levels

1. Bearish Case (Wave-5 Downside)
   • If Bitcoin breaks below 81K, a thrust move lower could send it toward 75K–70K.
   • This could mark the final sell-off before a reversal.
2. Bullish Case (Rebound After Wave-5 Completion)
   • Watch for bullish signals in the 75K–70K range as the wedge completes.
   • A reversal here could kickstart a massive upside rally, confirming the end of the corrective phase. In that case , we have
   • Extreme Bullish Behaviour & Bitcoin can retest 109K Highs where the wedge pattern started downside 
      

Fxstreet Image Notation WXY changed to ABC - Wave Structure  (Showing Yellow Box for Wave -2 in the Wedge-C)

 

Conclusion: Another bloodbath or the last drop before liftoff?

Bitcoin’s irregular structure has kept traders on edge since 109K in January 2025. The messy Wave-1, sharp Wave-3 drop, and current setup for Wave-5 suggest one last major fall before a possible bullish turnaround. Will Bitcoin hit 75K–70K before reversing, or are there more blunders ahead?

---